#OneBigBeautifulBill
President Trump signed a law unofficially dubbed the 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' which increases the US federal debt ceiling by a record $5 trillion. Although cryptocurrencies are not mentioned once in the text of the law, its macroeconomic consequences — rising inflation, a weakening dollar, and questions about the fiscal sustainability of the US — directly affect the world of digital assets. The aim of this article is to analyze how this seemingly distant step from the crypto industry may become one of the key growth drivers for the market in the coming years.
Let's try to highlight the main points in the current situation:
Historic increase in federal debt: The US government has gained the ability to borrow an additional $5 trillion, a precedent-setting one-time increase. This indicates a serious budget deficit and an intention to continue the policy of large-scale government spending.
Threat of accelerating inflation: To finance the debt, the government will likely turn to the Federal Reserve for help, which will 'print money' (through quantitative easing). An increase in the money supply without a corresponding economic growth inevitably leads to the devaluation of money, i.e., inflation.
Declining trust in the US dollar: The dollar has long been considered the world's main reserve currency and a 'safe haven.' However, the constant growth of debt and inflationary risks undermine its reputation as a reliable means of saving.
Cryptocurrencies as an alternative: In conditions where traditional financial instruments are losing their appeal, investors begin to seek alternative assets to protect their capital. Bitcoin, with its limited issuance of 21 million coins, is often seen as 'digital gold' — an asset capable of protecting against inflation.
Analysis of factors
Factor 1: US fiscal policy.
Dynamics: The government continues to spend more than it earns, covering the gap through borrowing. Raising the debt ceiling is not a solution to the problem, but merely a delay that allows this policy to continue.
Influence: Each new trillion of debt increases pressure on the monetary system and causes investors around the world to doubt the long-term stability of the American economy.
Factor 2: The monetary policy of the Fed.
Dynamics: The Fed finds itself in a trap. On one hand, it must fight inflation (by raising rates), and on the other, it must ensure credit availability for the government (by printing money). More often than not, the choice is made in favor of the latter, which drives the inflationary spiral.
Influence: The actions of the Fed directly affect the value of money. The more dollars in the system, the less each one is worth. This creates a direct incentive to seek assets with limited supply.
Factor 3: Investor sentiment.
Dynamics: There is a growing awareness that holding savings in fiat currencies is becoming increasingly risky. A reassessment of risks is occurring, and what was once considered conservative (dollar deposits) now carries inflationary risks.
Influence: Capital starts to flow from traditional assets into alternatives. Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, become beneficiaries of this process, attracting both retail and large institutional investors.
Conclusions
Short-term: There may not be an immediate market reaction to the law itself, as this is an expected event. However, it lays the fundamental groundwork for future growth.
Medium-term: Over the next 12-24 months, we are likely to see increased inflationary pressure. This will become the main marketing argument for Bitcoin and other deflationary cryptocurrencies.
Long-term: Systematic devaluation of the dollar may accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrencies not only as an investment but also as a means of payment. The weaker the dollar, the stronger the incentive to seek a substitute.
Now let's try to combine our analysis into a cohesive logical chain of general summary.
For a long time, the US dollar was considered the main 'safe haven' for savings around the world. However, the government's decision to borrow another $5 trillion creates serious risks of inflation and currency weakening. And although the law itself does not mention cryptocurrencies, its economic consequences directly affect investors. This situation drives many to seek alternative, more reliable assets to preserve their capital.
Simply put, the US government spends far more money than it collects in taxes. To cover the shortfall, it borrows. The debt ceiling is a limit beyond which borrowing is not allowed. This limit is regularly raised, but $5 trillion at once is a historical record.
It's like living on credit all the time, and instead of cutting expenses, you just negotiate with the bank to increase your credit card limit. Sooner or later, this leads to problems.
The main problems are inflation and a weakening dollar. For the government to borrow such huge amounts, the central bank (the Fed) often helps by 'printing' new money. The more dollars appear out of thin air, the less value each individual dollar in your pocket has. Your $100 today and a year from now represent two different amounts in purchasing power. This is inflation.
And here comes Bitcoin onto the scene. Its main advantage is embedded in the code: only 21 million coins will ever be issued, and not one more. No central bank can 'print' bitcoins to cover a budget deficit. This makes it a predictable and inflation-resistant asset.
When investors see their savings in dollars melting away due to inflation, they start looking for where to reallocate their money. Previously, gold was such an asset. Today, more and more people are looking towards 'digital gold' — Bitcoin.
What awaits us?
The new law is not a 'magic button' that will instantly send the crypto market into space. Rather, it is a powerful tailwind that will blow into the sails of the crypto industry in the coming years.
The growth of US federal debt and subsequent inflation create the perfect backdrop for the growth of assets that are not subject to the whims of politicians and central banks. So, perhaps the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' will indeed turn out to be beautiful. But not for the dollar, rather for those who recognized the potential of decentralized finance in time.