China is simultaneously showing aggression, anxiety, and caution. It is retaliating against the EU for attempts to limit exports, paying citizens for having children, and watching the market like a thermometer of its own stability.
In recent days, three news items from China have sparked a wave of discussion: retaliatory tariffs on French brandy, readiness for direct payments for newborns, and nervousness in the stock market. At first glance — three different events, but in the context of the current economic and geopolitical situation, they are interconnected.
1. Brandy under attack: China strikes back
Starting July 5, China is introducing five-year anti-dumping tariffs on European brandy — primarily French cognac. The tariffs range from 27.7% to 34.9%. Formally, it's protection against dumping, but in reality, it's a response from Brussels to the investigation of subsidies for Chinese electric vehicles. It's especially symbolic that the blow fell on France — a country actively opposing China's export expansion.
2. Paying for children: a response to demographics
According to a Bloomberg leak, China is preparing to introduce annual payments of 3,600 yuan for each child born from 2025 until they reach the age of three. This is the first nationwide measure of its kind. The reason is the rapid decline in birth rates: in 2024, only 9.54 million children were born — a record low since 1949.
3. The exchange is on edge: markets are waiting, holding their breath
Against the backdrop of trade uncertainty, the Chinese stock market is showing restrained dynamics. On Friday, the Shanghai Composite rose by 0.32%, while the Shenzhen Component decreased by 0.25%. Over the week, both indices gained more than 1%. Investors are anxiously watching Trump's rhetoric, who is threatening tariffs again, while also monitoring steps towards de-escalation: the U.S. has lifted some restrictions on technology exports to China.