Trump's New Tariff Policy Triggers Global Trade Tensions
Since July 4, the United States has issued formal tax increase notifications to 10-12 trading partners, with the new tariffs set to officially take effect on August 1, and the scope of implementation is expected to expand. The tax rates are divided into two tiers: if an agreement is reached with the United States by July 9, a lower rate of 10%-20% can be enjoyed; countries that do not reach an agreement will face high tariffs of 60%-70%, with specific rates adjusted based on negotiation outcomes. Some smaller countries without negotiating leverage may even face tariffs exceeding 50%.
Currently, the United Kingdom and Vietnam have accepted the 10%-20% tax rate to avoid being subjected to higher tariffs; meanwhile, countries such as China, India, and Japan have been placed on the high tariff list. This strategy is analyzed as Trump using tariffs as "negotiation chips" to force countries to accept the trade conditions proposed by the United States, rather than genuinely pursuing a "reciprocal" relationship.
Global reactions and potential impacts are already evident: economies such as the EU and China may take countermeasures, escalating trade frictions. Financial markets may experience heightened volatility, inflation pressures may rise, and ultimately, consumers may bear the higher costs. July 9 is a critical juncture; if no agreement is reached by that day, the tax rates for uncompromising countries may double.
In the long term, this policy will accelerate the restructuring of global supply chains, with smaller economies potentially facing greater shocks due to a lack of negotiating power, while the competition between major powers such as China and the United States will further escalate.
Trump's "preemptive" strategy may force some countries to compromise in the short term, but in the long run, it could trigger a series of trade conflicts, posing challenges to global economic stability.
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