The BTC price has tested the range of 107k to 108k as expected and successfully wiped out some new long stop losses above 107k. The current price is holding above 107k and hasn't really dropped below it.
Current market status:
Overall, the leverage used by bulls to buy coins has decreased, indicating that they are being more cautious.
There is a considerable backlog of short positions waiting to be liquidated above, which acts like a magnet. If the price rises, the forced liquidation of these shorts will push the price up even faster.
Reason for last night's drop:
The main reason is that the negotiations regarding tariffs in the U.S. have encountered some issues and are not going smoothly. With the deadline of July 9 approaching, the market is a bit anxious.
What’s next? Two possibilities:
1. No bad news comes in:
If the tariff negotiations are postponed again, the market will breathe a sigh of relief, and panic emotions will gradually dissipate. The price is likely to continue upward following the original trend. From the futures market order situation, it is currently favorable for the bulls. If the price rises further, it will be much easier to hit the short “minefield” at 110.5k to 113k than before.
2. Bad news arrives:
Based on past observations of Trump's patterns, he particularly likes to make big moves on weekends, with a lot of fanfare! Today he signed 12 trade letters, notifying several countries about tariffs, but how much will be added? Unknown! We will have to wait until Monday to find out.
What does this mean?
Before the news is clarified on Monday, the market is likely to remain relatively calm, price fluctuations will decrease, and trading volume will shrink.
Where to watch for key positions?
When the price is above 107k, the waiting shorts will attract the price to move upwards.
If the price drops below 107k, the area of 103k to 105k will become dangerous, as there are many long positions waiting to be liquidated, which will pull the price down like a magnet.
My opinion:
The direction of external intervention is unclear, making it indeed difficult to make heavy moves. My suggestion is to base decisions on the objective facts visible at the moment:
If the price stabilizes above 107k: The short-term outlook leans towards consolidation or slight bullishness.
If the price effectively drops below 107k: Then it will need to shift towards a bearish outlook. Keep an eye on this key position.
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