Bull markets are prone to sharp declines, while bear markets often spike—this current 'painting door' situation with ETH is a vivid lesson for retail investors at the 2600 mark.
Market Dissection
Technical Analysis: The main players' 'fishing line' is revealing itself.
This morning, when ETH peaked at $2635, it coincided with the positive news of 'Vitalik's Foundation announcing new L2 cooperation'.
News Source: CoinTelegraph reported at 7:00, but the MACD yellow and white lines (DIF 9.04/DEA 13.64) showed 'top divergence', a typical 'selling on good news' tactic.
The key support at $2549 has been tested three times without breaking, resembling the June 15 scenario of 'falsely breaking below 2500 and then violently rising by 20%', with the lower Bollinger Band at 2565 serving as a short-term lifeline.
Funding Situation: The tricks behind the huge volume.
At 10:00, the 1-hour K-line released a huge volume of 2367 ETH but closed bearish, opening at 2588 and closing at 2574. On-chain data shows a whale address sold 12,000 ETH near 2590, but there were continuous buy orders of 500 ETH at 2549, clearly a combination of 'dumping and accumulating'.
Sentiment: The battle between bulls and bears is heating up.
The put/call ratio in the options market surged to 0.8, but the perpetual contract funding rate remains positive, indicating retail investors are still betting on a rebound, while the main players are just 'harvesting at high rates'.
The Great Sage's Personal Opinion
This market is reminiscent of last December when ETH surged to 3000—back then, there were also frequent positive news, but the main players repeatedly painted the door in the 2950-3050 range, washing out for half a month before truly breaking through.
Remember: The main players drive up the price to sell, and they dump to accumulate. Tonight at 20:30, the US non-farm payroll data will be released (expected unemployment rate 3.8%). If the data disappoints, ETH might play the classic 'sharp drop to explode long positions → V-shaped reversal to short' scenario. If you want to position in advance, click on my profile to see (Non-farm Night Trading Manual)—long-time followers know we precisely ambushed that 15% rise before last month's CPI data!$ETH #美国加征关税
Remember! The market is never wrong, we are! I am the Great Sage, a top-tier layout team, serving only the ambitious madmen with vision!
