Advisor's Discussion on Hot Topics:
Let's first talk about last night's non-farm payroll. As soon as the data was released, it directly poured cold water on the fantasy that the Federal Reserve would loosen monetary policy. The ridiculously strong data instantly woke the market up, and the idea of easing should not be mentioned in the short term.
On the other hand, the beautiful big bill has basically been nailed down; this wave of good news has been almost fully priced in. To put it simply, the short-term performance is about done, and if you want to continue to push upward, you need a new, eye-catching topic to help Bitcoin stabilize above 110K.
Returning to the market, technically it looks okay; the daily channel is still steadily rising, and the spot premium is also healthy. This indicates that the market structure is not collapsing and remains on track, and the pressure channel has moved up to between 114K and 121K.
In other words, as long as we can truly break above 111K, there will be at least a 10,000-point upward space afterwards. This is not just a small game; it’s about going for the gains. But you have to break through first; just oscillating below is useless. If 111K cannot be broken, it’s all nonsense.
Speaking of this, I must mention that many people probably forgot how Bitcoin rose from 74K three months ago. At that time, Trump gave all the countries affected by tariffs a 90-day buffer period, and now there are only 5 days left; it ends on July 9.
If Trump cannot negotiate a tariff agreement below 10% with these countries within the next 5 days, the logic supporting this recent rise in Bitcoin will be completely undermined, and the valuation of the rise from 74K may shrink directly. At that point, don’t even mention a pump; just managing to avoid a waterfall would be a good thing.
To conclude, logically speaking, the market will remain conservative until July 9, and it is unlikely to surge wildly. Additionally, there is another CPI data release in mid-July. If a 10% tariff can raise inflation a bit, then switching to 15% or 20% would likely drive the market crazy. This is a reality that must be accepted; the data aspect is a hard injury that the market cannot bypass.
From the current perspective, the optimistic view could see 114K to 121K; once the market takes off, it could be at least a $10,000 gain. The pessimistic view would see a pullback to 101K to 103K.
But regardless of whether it rises or falls in the short term, the long-term bullish trend is still there, and the structure is intact. The key is how the funds move over the next few days; the current 111K is a hurdle. If the funds can hold up and no one escapes, then we can look for a new high.
But if your capital runs away, it will all be in vain. There are indeed many bulls in the market who praise each other, but there are also quite a few bears outside.
A quick note: the U.S. stock market closed early last night after 1 o'clock. Today is DULI Day in the U.S., and the market will also enter holiday mode. For these three days, liquidity is likely to be quite poor, and the market may not move much.
Moreover, the futures market has been almost completely liquidated in both directions recently, with both sides cleaned out. Under such circumstances, those who are trapped in positions should not expect a big market movement over the weekend. It’s likely to be a boring and sluggish dead market unless a big piece of news drops; otherwise, it will just be a waste of time and emotions.
Advisor's View on Trends:
Reference for resistance levels:
Second resistance level: 111000
First resistance level: 110000
Reference for support levels:
Second support level: 108700
First support level: 107800
After retracing to 110K, Bitcoin is currently consolidating around 109K, and is still operating within an upward trend line, constructing a consolidation range between 109K and 110K.
The RSI indicator has shown potential signs of bullish divergence, so confirmation of this divergence is also needed. The price needs to hold the current low while the RSI needs to rebound to form support.
The first resistance at 110K is a strong psychological barrier; if one wants to effectively break through this level, the current consolidation below is very crucial. The range from 108.7K to 109K is considered a key area of concentrated positions in the short term. If the price raises the low and breaks through 110K again, it will trigger a rapid rise in the short term.
The first support at 108.7K is a confirmation level after breaking through the previous high. If it can hold, the expectation for a short-term rebound remains. The second support at 107.8K is an important structural support and overlaps with multiple moving averages, also serving as a low-buying accumulation area.
Advisor's Waveband Pre-embed on 7.4:
Reference for long entry: enter in batches in the range of 107800-108700, target: 110000
Reference for short entry: not currently referenced
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they post screenshots of long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, appearing to 'catch the top and bottom every time,' but in reality, it’s all just hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, self-consistent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are essential to distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dream weaver!
