ETH Market Analysis！

Bollinger Bands have tightened to 3.8%, with 2589 being the critical line for bulls and bears！

Market Status and Data

​​Current ETH price: 2589.61​​, 4-hour Bollinger Bands

Exact values:

​​Upper Band: 2654.39​​​​Middle Band: 2509.39

Channel width is only​​3.8%, narrower than before the market shift in March,​​indicating the highest accumulation level in six months​​！

​Core Logic and Practical Adjustments​​

​​Latest Dynamic Integration​​：

​​Federal Reserve Sentiment​​: Last night’s PCE data released with a 68% expectation for interest rate cuts

​​On-chain Alerts​​: A whale deposited 32,000 ETH to Coinbase, but​​simultaneously 18,000 ETH was withdrawn from Binance​​

​​Technical Resonance​​: MACD values adjusted to​​DIF: 12.60, DEA: 12.61​​, while the​​RSI triple bottom divergence​​still holds

​​My Strategy Optimization​​：

​​Long position trigger point lowered​​: 2509.39​​Breakout adjustment​​: 2650→​​2654.39​​​​Hedging Upgrade​​: Using​​2655-CALL options​​to replace the original plan, reducing the cost to 0.3 ETH

​​Critical Risk Warning​​

​​Tonight at 20:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls​​：

If employment numbers > 180,000 → Linked to a stock market crash → ETH tests​​2364​​If < 150,000 → Expectations for rate cuts surge → Impacting the​​2700 resistance zone​​

Liquidation Chain Reaction​​: A 43 million liquidation order on SOL is confirmed, if ETH follows it will trigger​​2480-2509 range long position liquidation​​

Key Operations​​

​​Mnemonic remains the same: Break 2654 to chase long, cross 2509 to stop loss, stay idle in between！​​

​​Aggressive Strategy​​：

​​Break 2590 with light position to test waters​​

​​Stair-step bottom buying below 2520​​

​​Conservative Strategy​​：

Place a combination order for​​2654.39 breakout + 2509.39 stop loss​​Buy spot while shorting an equivalent perpetual

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