I still see people excited about Altseason and, although I remain bullish (that hasn't changed), it cannot be denied that in this cycle:
- There are hardly any diamond hands or holders who buy into the projects' narratives. Most investors have evolved and are now short-term investors/traders with a plan. This makes everything move much faster and pumps do not sustain like before. Basically, people know that most alts are smoke and act accordingly.
- Insiders, devs, CEX, and market makers are much more hostile; they no longer reinvest as much in the tokens and are more predatory than in 2021, taking a large part of the industry's capital into their pockets.
- Memes have caused more damage even than the huge dilutions of 2021-2022, leading to a brutal capital extraction.
- There are thousands of obsolete and abandoned projects like shipwrecks, which have lost their community and all the interest they once had.
- This cycle is the institutional cycle, and institutions are much smarter, more selective, and more conservative in their investments.
- The dilution of coins detracts attention, exclusivity, and value, making it harder than ever to attract capital. And if they do manage to do so, it's to a much lesser extent than before.
And I'm sure I have left many more reasons why I think that the Altseason as we knew it will not exist.
What I do believe in is a selective Altseason, where some assets and ecosystems that truly provide solutions manage to capture attention and generate generational profits, as we have already seen.
Oh, and everything going up is not an Altseason. Altseason for me is seeing average returns of several multipliers in everything that is not Bitcoin.