Criptoniano

Stocks and crypto can continue to have brutal increases.

Why?

Because the FED will have to lower rates one way or another… and possibly launch a new QE.

Trump has tried everything and has not been able to stop the rise of bonds.

Let us remember that the level of debt in the U.S. is unsustainable, and this year they have a huge amount of maturities (if interest rates keep rising, the system won't hold).

Sooner or later, the FED will be forced to intervene: lower rates and activate bond buybacks (QE) to stop it.

Bitcoin has rebounded more than 27% but Google searches remain at a minimum.

This indicates that it is institutional investors who are buying and that retail will re-enter at the peak or close to it.

We have a radical narrative shift:

-Bitcoin has broken bearish structure.
-Trump backs down with China.
-Trump says he will not fire Powell.
-End of the war in Ukraine seems to be near.

We may see some interesting months ahead. Although with Trump, anything is possible.

I don't usually share personal things, but today I went to get the car and found that someone had scratched the hood with a stone.

The damage is minimal, but I'm still surprised by the level of frustration and misery that some people live with. What a pity.

Now that the position of Pope has become vacant, Trump has the perfect profile:

He won't perform miracles, but the circus is guaranteed.

Trump has made the first move in the domino effect with his tariffs.

It is already estimated that 90% of global economies will cut rates in 2025.

Your portfolio does not rise because it is worth more.

It rises because the dollar (its counterpart) is worth less.

We have reached levels from 3 years ago👇

$OM has been one of the most manipulated assets I remember in months.

If you entered in November (or earlier), you had plenty of room to exit with profits.

If you bought during the artificial rises generated by the Market Maker, you simply did what they were looking for.

I'm not saying this to kick a man when he's down, but so you can learn the lesson if you lost money.

I also don't intend to justify the brutal dump, but this asset had been behaving irrationally for a while.

Personally, I would never have bought above 5. It was just a time to sell.

Amazed by BTC and ETH.

Traditional market collapsing and crypto remaining unfazed.

How to interpret it?

Total capitulation will only come when people stop believing that everything will bounce back in 3 months.

It will happen when they sell convinced that a recession is coming.

And it will probably be then when we mark the definitive bottom.

The meme

Crypto apps are collapsing in the App Store ranking.

Retail is out.

What will happen with $BTC?

As the most likely scenario in the short term, I would see a rapid drop towards the 78k area, where we have more liquidity.

There we should see a strong reaction and respect the previous low to look for the liquidity above, which is around 88.5k.

If we lose the previous low, things could get complicated and this analysis would be invalidated.

This has marked the market ceilings for us.

Since December, when the map is tinged with yellow indicating a high number of open contracts, the market has shown areas of overheating where it has corrected.

Currently, we are still far from that level, suggesting that the market could continue to rise until yellow predominates.

Global liquidity (M2) has grown moderately since 2022, despite the FED's QT.

Bitcoin has already benefited, but the room for expansion remains huge compared to other cycles.

I do not expect a 2021, but even a scenario like 2014 would imply a strong injection of capital into the markets.

Has Bitcoin hit bottom?

Since 2023, every time the Bid and Ask Ratio (an indicator that measures buying vs. selling pressure) has given a bullish signal in moments of extreme fear, we have not only seen a bottom, but it has also followed with a bullish rally.

14 days ago, this confluence was activated again for the first time since September 2024.

Something quite bullish is that despite the drops, the supply of stablecoins has increased continuously.

In previous corrections, this was not the case and could indicate some buying pressure/interest.

$TSLA

It has fallen more than 50% and I believe it is oversold.

All of this has been caused by the decrease in sales in Europe and the controversy surrounding Elon Musk, but there are very strong catalysts for this year:

-New Model Y (March 2025) which has 200,000 pre-orders just in China.

-Robotaxi Service (June 2025)

Fundamentally, Tesla continues to lead the automotive market in sales:

In terms of financial data, I highlight that the company has a lot of cash and very little debt.

The risks are that sales in Europe do not recover due to tariff issues, economic risks in the USA, and that the Model Y does not meet expectations.

I think that from the current level we could bounce back in the coming weeks/months to approximately 350$ . This would mean a rebound of more than 50%.

Powell is between a rock and a hard place:

His priority for years has been to reduce inflation to 2%. However, if he ends QT and begins to stimulate the markets with rate cuts or liquidity injections, that goal will fade away, but not only would he avoid a recession, we would likely enter a pretty strong rally.

On the other hand, if he remains firm in his strategy, a "soft landing" seems increasingly unlikely, especially with Trump pushing hard with his aggressive policy. If the economy goes into recession during his first year in office, he will not hesitate to blame the Biden administration.

The real dilemma is that if the Fed ignores inflation and adopts a premature expansionary policy, relief will be temporary: a "bread for today and hunger for tomorrow," as inflation would spike again, further complicating the long-term economic outlook. The Fed has insisted that it will be patient and wait for inflation to decrease sustainably before cutting rates, but market and government pressure could force its hand sooner than expected.

Powell faces a tough choice: maintain the tightening and risk an economic crisis or yield to political pressure and risk a new inflationary wave.

I know that $ETH is the disappointment of this cycle.

I am also aware that I have been wrong about the asset, because the crypto market is no longer what it was and this cycle is nothing like the previous ones. Neither by rotations nor by anything.

Still, it makes no sense to be bearish now.

In the past, we needed three of the biggest black swans to break these zones. And the minimum we made wasn't even organic, but a consequence of the liquidation of 3AC positions.

Investing is not about always being right, but making decisions where the potential reward outweighs the risk.

Can it correct another 40%? Yes, but it's complicated without other black swans. The bears seem exhausted, the market is clean of panic-sellers...

Surpassing what we have already experienced would seem difficult. This in a context of greater acceptance, with ETFs, etc.

This potential loss compared to the upside it can have is nothing. Even if you are a much more conservative investor and seek less ambitious goals.

IMO if you can buy/average ETH here and have patience, the chances of winning are extremely high.