1. Market observation
The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is at a complex crossroads triggered by trade tariffs. Chairman Powell admitted that if it weren't for the Trump administration's tariff plan that could undermine inflation control achievements, the Fed might have already cut rates. Although he kept all possibilities open for the July rate decision, his remarks hinted at increasing policy flexibility, suggesting that if employment data weakens, the threshold for rate cuts may lower. Meanwhile, the US government's fiscal policy has also added new variables, with the much-anticipated 'big and beautiful' tax and spending bill narrowly passing in the Senate by a vote of 51 to 50. The House of Representatives will debate and vote on the Senate version on Wednesday, with Trump hoping to sign it into law before Independence Day on July 4. The bill has far-reaching implications, planning to cut taxes, reduce social safety net spending, while increasing military and immigration enforcement budgets, which is expected to add up to $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. On the trade front, President Trump took a hard stance, explicitly stating he will not delay the tariff deadline of July 9, specifically targeting Japan, exacerbating global market tensions and uncertainties. Notably, due to the Independence Day holiday, the US stock market will close early at 1 AM on July 4 (Beijing time) and will be closed all day on July 4, entering a brief period of silence before the policy storm.
Yesterday marked the 28th anniversary of Hong Kong's return, against this backdrop, HashKey Exchange, Hong Kong's first licensed virtual asset exchange, officially showcased its offline experience booth at West Kowloon High-Speed Rail Station, providing convenient service channels and experiences for the public. HashKey's chief analyst, Jeffrey Ding, stated that the development of Web3 is not only a technological iteration but also a reshaping of efficiency and trust paradigms. 2025 is seen as an important node for Hong Kong to restart with digital sovereignty and institutional innovation. In the context of accelerating on-chain efficiency improvement and the institutionalization trend of digital assets, Hong Kong is expected to play a leading role in the global new financial order.
Bitcoin fell to $105,000 this morning, with Bitfinex analysts noting the first signs of weakening upward momentum, potentially entering a consolidation phase or local top. Meanwhile, spot trading volume has decreased, and profit-taking behavior has increased, with the short-term holder cost basis of $98,700 becoming a key support. Historical data shows Bitcoin usually performs weakly in the third quarter, with an average return rate of 6%. Future price volatility is expected to further decrease, and the trend may continue to oscillate within a range. Matrixport statistics show that Bitcoin recorded increases in seven of the past ten Julys, with an average increase of 9.1%, supporting market expectations for a challenge of the $116,000 level. However, relatively pessimistic analyst CryptoCapo warns that the real sell-off has yet to begin, predicting Bitcoin's price may drop below $100,000 to the $92,000-$93,000 range, and if it falls further, it could touch a potential bottom of $60,000-$70,000. He also pointed out that if this trend materializes, altcoins could face a further drop risk of 50%-80%.
On-chain market remains relatively lukewarm, with no popular speed trading volume. $USELESS on Bonk and $STARTUP on Believe both reached historical highs. However, the recent trend of stock tokenization led by Robinhood and xStocks has brought some highlights. Robinhood's stock price reached a historical high yesterday, touching $99.18, which also revived the Meme coin stockcoin on the Solana chain, with its market cap soaring from $14,000 to $4.4 million in nearly three days, a 1400% increase within 24 hours.
2. Key data (as of July 2, 12:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $106,465 (up 13.8% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $26.059 billion
Ethereum: $2,439.94 (down 26.88% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $14.38 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 63 (Greed)
Average GAS: BTC: 2 sat/vB ETH: 0.7 Gwei
Market share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: STMX, XRP, CBK, BTC, PENGU
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.1186
Sector performance: AI sector down 4.48%; RWA sector down 4.72%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 100,830 people liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $256 million, including $77.6394 million in BTC, $56.1918 million in ETH, and $13.8666 million in SOL.
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper bound (107,151.13 USD), lower bound (105,029.32 USD)
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper bound (2,467.39 USD), lower bound (2,418.53 USD)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or oscillates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates either a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF inflows (as of July 1)
Bitcoin ETF: -$342 million (15 consecutive days of net inflow ended)
Ethereum ETF: +$40.6798 million (3 consecutive days of net inflow)
4. Today's outlook
Due to the US Independence Day, the US stock market will close early at 1 AM on July 4 (Beijing time); closed all day on July 4.
Binance Alpha will list Echo Protocol (ECHO) on July 2
Coinbase lists Wormhole (W)
Rex-Osprey Solana staking ETF is expected to launch on July 2
OKX will delist USDT perpetual contract trading pairs for NC, SLERF, KNC, and ALPHAd at 16:00 on July 4
US June ADP employment numbers (10,000): previous value 3.7, expected 9.5 (July 2, 20:15)
US June unemployment rate: previous value 4.2%, expected 4.3% (July 3, 20:30)
US June seasonally adjusted non-farm employment numbers (10,000): previous value 13.9, expected 11 (July 3, 20:30)
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.6 million tokens at 3 PM on July 2, accounting for 0.67% of current circulation, valued at approximately $10.7 million;
Top 500 market cap biggest gainers today: Humanity Protocol (H) up 106.52%, Cobak Token (CBK) up 50.90%, Useless Coin (USELESS) up 24.89%, Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL) up 17.70%, Aleo (ALEO) up 16.68%.
5. Hot news
Listed cannabis company Dogecoin Cash Inc. establishes a subsidiary to build a DOGE treasury and related business
Binance Alpha will list CROSS (CROSS)
London-listed company Anemoi increases Bitcoin investment ratio from 30% to about 40%
Analysis: Bitcoin's average increase in July is 9.1%, which may challenge the $116,000 level in the coming weeks
(Rich Dad Poor Dad) Author: just bought another BTC, believe Bitcoin will one day reach $1 million
Leading pharmaceutical biotech plans to acquire all shares of Conflux to expand in the blockchain field, with two founding members of Conflux as its executive directors
Japanese gaming company CyberStep plans to invest 1 billion yen into cryptocurrency investments, using BTC and ETH for corporate asset reserves
Bitfinex Alpha: BTC usually performs weakly in Q3, with an average return rate of 6%
NASDAQ-listed company LGHL has accumulated $5 million worth of HYPE, SOL, and SUI
Move Foundation reserves wallet received 45 million $MOVE from Binance, currently holding 168 million
Trusta.AI announces $TA tokenomics model, 3% allocated for airdrops
Trump family-related cryptocurrency project American Bitcoin raises $220 million for Bitcoin mining
Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September and to cut three times
Katana mainnet officially launched, starting a 1 billion KAT token incentive program
Circle applies for a US banking license to custody USDC reserves
Robinhood plans to launch its own blockchain and introduce 'stock tokens' in the EU
US Treasury Secretary: Stablecoin legislation may be completed by mid-July
BitMine announces private placement of $250 million and launches Ethereum financial strategy
JPMorgan gives Circle a 'reduce' rating, setting the target price at $80 by the end of 2026
This article is supported by HashKey, HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets in Asia. It aims to redefine the benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform protection.
