Market Dominance: Bitcoin’s market cap share reached 65%, its highest 2025 peak, while altcoin total market cap dropped 12.3% weekly.
Institutional Flight: Geopolitical risks and regulatory crackdowns drive $11.3 billion into Bitcoin ETFs, with traditional finance giants increasing exposure significantly.
Altcoin Crisis: Major altcoins show negative funding rates and liquidity shortages, with ETH/BTC ratio approaching critical 0.02 support level.
Bitcoin dominance surges to 65% as investors flee to safety amid geopolitical tensions. Altcoins face liquidity crisis while institutional capital flows into BTC ETFs and compliant products.
NEW DATA HIGHS: Bitcoin’s Absolute Dominance
As of June 30, Bitcoin’s market cap share soared to 65%, creating 2025’s monthly peak. This represents a 10 percentage point increase from January’s 55% level. The data significantly exceeds Ethereum’s (ETH) 7.14% and Solana’s (SOL) 3.2%, forming the most uneven “oligopoly structure” in nearly three years.
Within the total market capitalization, Bitcoin dominates with $1.98 trillion, while altcoin total market cap shrank to $1.06 trillion. Weekly declines reached 12.3%. Fund flow monitoring shows exchange BTC balances dropped to 2.14 million coins (approximately $140 billion). This marks the lowest level since October 2020. Long-term holders (over 155 days) comprise more than 70%, with supply tightening continuously intensifying.
RISK-OFF DRIVERS: Three Capital Migration Logics
Geopolitical Risk Premium
Middle East conflict escalation pushed oil prices to $98 per barrel. Combined with Federal Reserve hawkish statements (possibly only one rate cut this year), global capital accelerates into “digital gold.” June Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $11.3 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT achieved its highest single-day inflow since March, reaching $270 million.
Regulatory Arbitrage Ends
Singapore’s expulsion of unlicensed exchanges (such as Bitget, Bybit) sparked compliance panic. Investors shifted toward SEC-regulated Bitcoin ETFs. Their total assets under management surpassed $78.8 billion (BlackRock holds 46%). Meanwhile, altcoins lack similar safe-haven channels.
Institutional Proxy Games
Traditional finance giants indirectly increased positions through shareholdings. MicroStrategy (MSTR) holdings exceeded 500,000 BTC, comprising 98% of total assets. Coinbase (COIN) stock prices rose 23% monthly, with Bitcoin correlation reaching 0.65.
ALTCOINS FACE LIQUIDITY CRISIS: Data Warnings
The ETH/BTC ratio dropped to 0.024, approaching yearly lows. If it breaks below 0.02, this may trigger DeFi leverage liquidation cascades.
Trading Volume Withers
Altcoin daily total trading volume shrank to $18 billion, representing only 28% of Bitcoin’s volume. Among the top ten altcoins, seven show negative funding rates (such as SUI, DOGE). Short position ratios exceed 60%.
Token Unlock Impact
This week Sui (SUI) unlocks 44 million tokens (worth $120 million), representing 1.3% of circulating supply. Ethena (ENA) unlocks 40.6 million tokens (worth $10.7 million). Historical data shows tokens average 15% declines after large unlocks.
FUTURE SCENARIOS: Is 65% the Starting Point or Peak?
Bullish Scenario
If the Federal Reserve starts rate cuts in September (58% probability) and Bitcoin breaks previous highs of $109,000, capital may overflow to ETH and other leading altcoins. Key indicator: ETH spot ETF approval (expected Q4 2025) could push ETH/BTC ratio back to 0.03.
Bearish Risks
If Bitcoin dominance breaks 70% (approaching 2017 cycle peak), this may squeeze altcoin survival space, triggering “death spirals.”
If the US “Beautiful America Act” fails to pass corporate tax cuts, this may weaken blockchain R&D investment, dragging down public chain ecosystems.
INVESTOR STRATEGIES: Maintain Core While Exploring Opportunities
Core Positions
Allocate Bitcoin spot ETFs (such as IBIT) or compliant custody products to hedge macro risks.
Satellite Exploration
Carefully select altcoins with strong fundamentals (such as ETH, SOL). Focus on on-chain activity (daily active addresses over 500,000) and technical breakthroughs (such as Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade).
Absolute Avoidance
Stay away from high-unlock tokens, negative funding rate contracts, and platform tokens from regulatory gray areas.
Market Implications: The Great Rotation Continues
This market shift reflects broader institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class. Traditional finance increasingly views Bitcoin as digital gold rather than speculative cryptocurrency. However, this concentration creates systemic risks.
The current environment resembles 2017’s market dynamics, when Bitcoin dominance peaked before capital rotated into altcoins. Yet, today’s regulatory landscape differs significantly. Institutional adoption provides stronger foundations but also concentrates risk.
Technical Outlook: Critical Levels Ahead
Bitcoin’s technical momentum remains strong above $60,000 support. However, altcoins face critical junctures. Ethereum’s potential drop below $3,000 could trigger broader selling. Solana’s support at $120 becomes increasingly important.
The next major catalyst likely comes from Federal Reserve policy decisions. Rate cuts could reignite risk appetite, benefiting altcoins disproportionately. Conversely, continued hawkish policies may extend Bitcoin’s dominance period.
Conclusion: Navigating the New Paradigm
Bitcoin’s 65% dominance represents both opportunity and warning. While institutional adoption validates the asset class, extreme concentration creates fragility. Investors must balance core Bitcoin exposure with selective altcoin positions.
The market’s evolution toward traditional finance integration accelerates. This transformation brings legitimacy but also changes risk profiles fundamentally. Success requires adapting strategies to this new paradigm while maintaining disciplined risk management.
As this cycle progresses, those who understand both Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative and altcoins’ utility potential will likely outperform. The key lies in timing and position sizing rather than binary choices between asset classes.
〈Bitcoin Dominance Breaks 65%: The “Vampire Market” and Altcoin Winter Under Risk-Off Sentiment〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。
