I personally believe that the large coin has a high probability of reaching the early high point again. As for the altcoins, there may be a wave of not too big rebound, and even a small climax in the market may occur.
Currently, the overall market situation is roughly as follows:
1. Short-term risks are not obvious: there are no significant systemic risks visible at the moment.
A recent point to note is July 9, which marks the 90-day deadline for the China-U.S. tariff negotiations. However, the market has not reacted much so far, representing a potential risk that has not yet fermented.
2. Strong U.S. stocks: The NASDAQ index has reached a new high, indicating that the market's risk appetite is recovering, and funds are more willing to flow into high-volatility assets.
3. A-share sentiment warming: The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high for the year. Last week, the banking sector adjusted, indicating that funds are more inclined to flow into industries with stronger growth potential.
At the same time, regulatory authorities plan to expand the price fluctuation limit for ST stocks from 5% to 10%, sending a signal that policies encourage market activity and enhance risk tolerance.
4. Geopolitical risks easing: The conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East is currently temporarily shelved and has not escalated further, which has a calming effect on the market.
5. Federal Reserve's dovish stance: An increasing number of Federal Reserve officials publicly support an early interest rate cut, which is beneficial for market liquidity.
Overall, the current market faces few negative factors; mainly, there is one potential tariff issue, while other aspects are mostly leaning towards positive.
Especially since some altcoins have dropped significantly, although many are air projects or scams, there are also “value coins” supported by fundamentals. Once the market sentiment picks up even slightly, a nice rebound may occur.
So at this stage, while it may not necessarily be a bull market, a small rebound or small climax is still quite hopeful.
