1. Panic Selling VS Institutional Bottom Fishing
On the first day of the conflict outbreak, a total of $1.015 billion was liquidated across the network, affecting 243,000 investors, with long positions accounting for as much as 89%. Dramatically, however, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF attracted $560 million despite the trend. This has created a 'death spiral' where institutional funds and retail investors face liquidation. This torn market sentiment is a typical reaction of cryptocurrencies during a crisis—short-term panic coexists with long-term value.
2. The Chain Reaction of Crude Oil - Inflation - Monetary Policy
Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing 20% of global oil supply, causing crude oil prices to soar to $120 per barrel. Renewed inflation concerns have cooled expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Bitcoin being the first to bear the brunt as a high-risk asset. Strangely, when the market realizes that the war has not triggered a global economic disaster, funds quickly flow back into the crypto market, resulting in a V-shaped reversal.
3. The Underlying Narrative of On-Chain Warfare
Iran's largest exchange, Nobitex, suffered a $90 million loss due to a hacker attack, which made the market realize that when traditional financial infrastructure collapses, Bitcoin mining machines can actually transform into distributed communication nodes, supporting economic activities in conflict-ridden areas. This suddenly materialized Bitcoin's 'war value,' reminiscent of Ukraine raising $127 million in aid through cryptocurrency.
II. Understanding the Underlying Logic of the Crypto Space from War
1. Bitcoin's Hedging Properties are Tested Again
In this conflict, Bitcoin's volatility was only ±3%, far lower than the 10% during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. The involvement of institutional investors (such as the Texas government with a $10 million Bitcoin reserve) is diluting the impact of war sentiment, with Bitcoin evolving from a 'speculative asset' to 'digital gold.'
2. Stablecoins Become a Lifeline for Liquidity During War
During the war, the weekly transfer volume of USDT increased by 440%. Iranians are using P2P platforms to exchange stablecoins at a premium to evade sanctions. This reminds us that in extreme conditions, stablecoins resemble 'digital cash' more than Bitcoin does, suggesting a 10%-20% allocation of USDT in holdings as emergency funds.
This indicates that the short-term impact of geopolitical events will eventually be digested by the market, while the long-term trend depends on supply-demand structures and institutional fund movements. The supply shrinkage effect after the 2024 halving is still at play, and the continued accumulation by institutions like the Texas government is building a solid foundation for Bitcoin.
💡 Finally, let's emphasize: In this uncertain era, cryptocurrencies are both risk assets and a 'digital Noah's Ark' in chaotic times. Learning to find opportunities in panic and staying sober during greed is essential to navigating the turbulent waves of the crypto space!#美国加征关税 #币安Alpha上新 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #BTC #ETH