As we approach the end of the monthly and quarterly cycles, it is necessary to re-examine the market landscape from a long-term perspective. Short-term trading can only capture short-term volatility gains, while seizing trend opportunities is the core of profitability. The current market is about to enter the summer liquidity depletion period. Combining technical and funding analysis, Yang Jie holds a pessimistic view on BTC breaking through the $110,000 mark in the third quarter. Whether it can reach this position in the future will depend on the evolution of market sentiment, and in the short term, we must be wary of the possibility of a market adjustment to the $80,000 range.

Core Logic Analysis:

1. Liquidity Cycle Suppression: The traditional financial market's liquidity decreases in summer, making the cryptocurrency market susceptible to liquidity contractions, leading to phase adjustments;

2. Clear Technical Resistance: The $110,000 level has formed a double top structure, with previous two peak retracements validating strong resistance in this area; current volume cannot support an effective breakout;

3. Bull-Bear Trend Reversal Signals Emerging: Market sentiment is shifting from greed to caution, with multiple top divergence patterns suggesting a possible reversal in the medium to long-term trend.

Trading Strategy Recommendation:

BTC can be positioned for short positions around $107,500, with a stop-loss set at $108,000, and the initial target set at the phase target of $106,000.

Historical experience shows that bottom-fishing requires courage, while escaping the top tests one's understanding - the current area around $108,000 may be the starting point for a new round of trend declines. Investors are advised to decisively seize the opportunity to exit at high levels and avoid systemic risks brought by liquidity withdrawal. #币安Alpha上新 #美国加征关税 #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 #币安钱包TGE #香港加密概念股 $BTC $ETH