In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum Evening Market and Trading Strategy Report
1. Market Operation Characteristics and Trend Analysis
（一）Intraday Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) today shows an extremely narrow fluctuation pattern, with a total trading day volatility of only 487 points, and market trading activity is significantly sluggish. The short position placed at $107,400 in the afternoon is temporarily under pressure from floating profits, but through refined market analysis, the trajectory of the main funds can be clearly captured.
（二）Technical Analysis in Depth
1. Medium-Term Indicator Signals: The 4-hour K-line chart shows that the Bollinger Bands channel has compressed to its lowest value in nearly 30 days, with the bandwidth coefficient dropping to 0.47%, indicating that the market is about to enter a directional breakout window. The price continues to consolidate in the upper track area of the channel, with the RSI indicator forming a top divergence pattern in the 60-65 range, suggesting that bearish momentum is building up periodically.
2. Short-Term Trend Verification: In the hourly chart, the downward channel remains intact, with prices descending in a stepwise manner along the lower track of the channel, and each rebound high after a pullback is lower than the previous high, forming a standard 'N-type' downward structure. The MACD double lines continue to operate below the zero axis, and although the green momentum bars occasionally narrow, an effective golden cross signal has not yet appeared, further confirming the bearish dominant pattern.
2. Core Trading Strategy Deployment
（一）Bitcoin (BTC) Trading Plan
Trading Direction Entry Point Stop Loss Target Price Risk Control
Short 107,500±20 USD 107,850 USD 106,000 USD Position ratio ≤3%
Strategy Basis: Relying on the strong resistance zone of $107,300-$107,700, combined with the top divergence technical pattern, set the target at the previous low support zone of $106,000, with a stop loss above the recent high volatility point.
（二）Ethereum (ETH) Trading Plan
Trading Direction Entry Point Stop Loss Target Price Risk Control
Short 2,450±5 USD 2,475 USD 2,360 USD Position ratio ≤2.5%
Strategy Basis: Based on the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level suppression within the $2,440-$2,460 range, combined with the evening star prototype of the daily K-line combination, the target points to the strong support zone of $2,350-$2,370.
3. Risk Control and Trading Tips
1. Risk Warning Breakthrough: Closely monitor the gain and loss of the middle line of the Bollinger Bands (Bitcoin $106,800, Ethereum $2,415). If the price effectively breaks through and stabilizes above the middle line, immediately terminate the short strategy.
2. Capital Management Requirements: It is recommended to adopt a phased position building model, with the first position not exceeding 1.5% of the total position, and the remaining position gradually increased based on market validation.
3. Key Data Tracking: Focus on monitoring the USDT over-the-counter premium rate, CME Bitcoin futures basis, and Grayscale GBTC premium rate as market sentiment indicators, serving as auxiliary verification for trend continuity.
This strategy is generated based on current market technical analysis and should be flexibly adjusted in actual trading according to macroeconomic data, policy dynamics, and unexpected events. The market has uncertainties, and investors must strictly implement risk control measures and participate in trading rationally.
