#美国5月核心PCE物价指数

According to current market data and institutional model calculations, the probability of the U.S. PCE inflation rate rising to 2.5% in May 2025 is approximately 65%-70%. The core logic is as follows:

---

📈 Key Supporting Factors

1. Energy Price Rebound

- The average price of WTI crude oil in May increased by 8.2% month-on-month (geopolitical conflicts + OPEC production cuts), directly boosting the transportation fuel sub-sector;

- The retail price of gasoline in the U.S. surpassed $3.85/gallon (a six-month high), with the contribution rate of the energy sub-sector reaching 0.3 percentage points.

2. Persistence of Service Inflation

- Housing costs are lagging in transmission: OER (Owner's Equivalent Rent) month-on-month growth rate still maintains above 0.4%;

- Healthcare service prices are driven by wages (May hourly wage year-on-year +4.1%), expected to rise by 0.5% month-on-month.

3. Preemptive Effect of Tariff Expectations

- Trump announced the restoration of tariffs on China in July, leading companies to stockpile goods in advance, resulting in rising prices for imported goods (May import price index increased by +0.7% month-on-month);

- Cost transmission in consumer goods sub-sectors (such as electronics and clothing) has already been observed.

---

⚠️ Market Impact Forecast

- Federal Reserve Policy: If the data materializes, the probability of a rate cut in September may sharply drop from the current 78% to below 50%;

- U.S. Treasury Rates: The 10-year yield may rebound to the range of 4.5%-4.7% (term premium expansion).