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#美国5月核心PCE物价指数
According to current market data and institutional model calculations, the probability of the U.S. PCE inflation rate rising to 2.5% in May 2025 is approximately 65%-70%. The core logic is as follows:
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📈 Key Supporting Factors
1. Energy Price Rebound
- The average price of WTI crude oil in May increased by 8.2% month-on-month (geopolitical conflicts + OPEC production cuts), directly boosting the transportation fuel sub-sector;
- The retail price of gasoline in the U.S. surpassed $3.85/gallon (a six-month high), with the contribution rate of the energy sub-sector reaching 0.3 percentage points.
2. Persistence of Service Inflation
- Housing costs are lagging in transmission: OER (Owner's Equivalent Rent) month-on-month growth rate still maintains above 0.4%;
- Healthcare service prices are driven by wages (May hourly wage year-on-year +4.1%), expected to rise by 0.5% month-on-month.
3. Preemptive Effect of Tariff Expectations
- Trump announced the restoration of tariffs on China in July, leading companies to stockpile goods in advance, resulting in rising prices for imported goods (May import price index increased by +0.7% month-on-month);
- Cost transmission in consumer goods sub-sectors (such as electronics and clothing) has already been observed.
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⚠️ Market Impact Forecast
- Federal Reserve Policy: If the data materializes, the probability of a rate cut in September may sharply drop from the current 78% to below 50%;
- U.S. Treasury Rates: The 10-year yield may rebound to the range of 4.5%-4.7% (term premium expansion).
According to current market data and institutional model calculations, the probability of the U.S. PCE inflation rate rising to 2.5% in May 2025 is approximately 65%-70%. The core logic is as follows:
---
📈 Key Supporting Factors
1. Energy Price Rebound
- The average price of WTI crude oil in May increased by 8.2% month-on-month (geopolitical conflicts + OPEC production cuts), directly boosting the transportation fuel sub-sector;
- The retail price of gasoline in the U.S. surpassed $3.85/gallon (a six-month high), with the contribution rate of the energy sub-sector reaching 0.3 percentage points.
2. Persistence of Service Inflation
- Housing costs are lagging in transmission: OER (Owner's Equivalent Rent) month-on-month growth rate still maintains above 0.4%;
- Healthcare service prices are driven by wages (May hourly wage year-on-year +4.1%), expected to rise by 0.5% month-on-month.
3. Preemptive Effect of Tariff Expectations
- Trump announced the restoration of tariffs on China in July, leading companies to stockpile goods in advance, resulting in rising prices for imported goods (May import price index increased by +0.7% month-on-month);
- Cost transmission in consumer goods sub-sectors (such as electronics and clothing) has already been observed.
---
⚠️ Market Impact Forecast
- Federal Reserve Policy: If the data materializes, the probability of a rate cut in September may sharply drop from the current 78% to below 50%;
- U.S. Treasury Rates: The 10-year yield may rebound to the range of 4.5%-4.7% (term premium expansion).
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