If the summer of 2025 ends at the bottom, then Bitcoin will continue to decline for the fourth summer; meanwhile, the S&P 500 index is expected to list in the summer's three consecutive upward trends.

To reiterate, BTC and the stock market often show synchronicity, but summer metrics feel more like a matter of observation rather than reports. Since 2020, Bitcoin has only had one June with a rebound, while the S&P 500 has only had two summers without closing in the red. From year to year, the S&P has had eight summers with a rebound, while BTC has only had six; synchronicity exists, but divergence in trends is unavoidable.

Data is the best record: BTC was crushed in the summer for five years.

In June 2020, BTC fell by 3.18%, but the situation was imposed, and at the end of the season, it was driven by the hot desire referred to as the 'DeFi summer'.

In 2021, from April to May, China intensified mining penalties, leading to a significant drop in June. However, it rebounded in July to August, ultimately gaining 8.68% in the summer.

In 2022, the collapse of Terra triggered industry suicides. After Celsius, 3AC went bankrupt, the SEC rejected ETF applications, the Fed raised CPI by 9.1%, and amid multiple blows, BTC rose in August only to be weighed down again.

In 2023, BlackRock proposed an ETF that brought back a wave in June, but the trend did not last, while the S&P was supported by technology stocks driven by AI during the same period.

In 2024, the Eastern market had low purity, with a loophole in yen borrowing swap transactions causing massive trading stations to collapse. At the same time, ETF input was weak, and BTC retreated into the deep sea during the summer.

The S&P is rather relaxed: resisting the intense situation positively.

In the summer of 2022, the S&P 500 also faced severe penalties, but thanks to the support of technology, it was able to revive in 2023. By June 2024, it still stood successfully, with a technical framework centered around AI and large algorithms already completed, and most companies capable of generating income. At this time, the S&P is more resilient.

BTC and the S&P: observing the seasonal arguments of similarities and differences.

The relationship between BTC and the S&P 500 is undoubtedly beginning to sync up, especially after the ETF approval. But this does not mean they will be synchronized from then on.

BTC is considered the 'industry rhythm', more like a multimedia-driven market that often overreacts to sudden crises within its own industry.

The S&P 500 represents 'economic overall analysis', measuring interest rates and corporate growth more finely, reflecting the market's expectations and calculations.

Don't forget the geopolitical storms at this time: coastal policies, oil prices, and light adjustments.

In the summer of 2025, unlike previous years, geopolitical storms have become the primary force in the market.

On June 23, the U.S. launched a sudden airstrike against Iran, to which Tehran responded by threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil transport. Meanwhile, traditional markets have yet to fully synchronize with the upward trend, creating a sense of unease.

The Fed has raised interest rates again, while Bitcoin seems to show some fear. However, with ETF input not being hindered, what can it wait for? At this moment, whether it's industry calculators or highly anticipated tech analysts, no one can traverse the great calm in between.

In fact, the biggest reason for BTC market reactions is not economic data, nor geopolitical storms, nor Fed policy changes, but the industry's own lineup adjustments. The so-called 'market super drill, a storm in the industry' is the grand definition.

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