$Circle(CRCL)$ 【Did Circle Break Through 200: Has the Wind Really Changed?】
In just two days, Circle has plummeted from a high of 198 dollars, with its market capitalization evaporating by nearly a quarter. The gap formed on June 20 (199–231 dollars) has been completely filled, and the 200 dollar mark has also been breached, increasing technical pressure.
The options market is releasing subtle signals: the total transaction volume is 437,000 contracts, which is 1.55 times the daily average; the Put/Call ratio has decreased to 1.28, and the open interest ratio has fallen to 1.37, indicating a slight loosening of defensive positions. IV has dropped to 132%, suggesting that expectations for significant volatility have been partially released; the T+2 contract Max Pain is at 250 dollars, about 50 dollars above the current price, and if short sellers lock in profits and market makers hedge, a technical rebound cannot be ruled out in the short term.
Valuations remain high, with a P/E ratio exceeding 2000 times. Reddit hot posts are generally pessimistic, pointing out that “the bubble has not been squeezed dry”; however, on YouTube, some bloggers have noted that the 200 dollar mark corresponds exactly to the lower edge of the previous gap, which may serve as a potential support zone. Divergence is intensifying, with the long and short battle focusing on this point.
Do you think Circle can rally back with Max Pain? Is the drop in IV a turning point or a trap?
This is not investment advice.