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BTC Volatility Weekly Review (April 21 - 28)
Key Indicators: (April 21, 4 PM - April 28, 4 PM Hong Kong Time)
BTC rises 8.2% against USD (from 87,500 to 94,700 USD), ETH rises 13.2% against USD (from 1,590 to 1,800 USD)
Last week, we saw prices cleanly and quickly break through the key resistance level of 89,000-91,000 USD (in line with the 100-day moving average), faster than our initial expectations (and seemingly exceeding market expectations). Currently, we expect prices to take a slight breather and consolidate within the comfortable range of 92,000-99,000 USD, especially considering the upcoming May Day holiday and local Asian festivals.
BTC rises 8.2% against USD (from 87,500 to 94,700 USD), ETH rises 13.2% against USD (from 1,590 to 1,800 USD)
Last week, we saw prices cleanly and quickly break through the key resistance level of 89,000-91,000 USD (in line with the 100-day moving average), faster than our initial expectations (and seemingly exceeding market expectations). Currently, we expect prices to take a slight breather and consolidate within the comfortable range of 92,000-99,000 USD, especially considering the upcoming May Day holiday and local Asian festivals.
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SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: He Said, Xi Said...
As the United States continues to engage in tariff brinkmanship around the world, Trump recently claimed to have conducted "more than 200" trade negotiations and said he recently spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, this claim was quickly refuted by the Chinese Embassy in Washington, which stated that "there are no consultations or negotiations between China and the United States on tariffs" and emphasized that "the United States should stop creating confusion."
Political analysts believe that low-level communications may continue, but it is doubtful whether any substantive agreement can be reached. The trade embargo currently in effect has dragged down economic growth in the first half of the year. We do not believe that there will be any clear solution to the US-China trade negotiations in the foreseeable future.
Political analysts believe that low-level communications may continue, but it is doubtful whether any substantive agreement can be reached. The trade embargo currently in effect has dragged down economic growth in the first half of the year. We do not believe that there will be any clear solution to the US-China trade negotiations in the foreseeable future.
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BTC Volatility Weekly Review (April 14 - 21)
Key indicators: (April 14, 4 PM -> April 21, 4 PM Hong Kong Time)
BTC against USD rose by 3.6% (84,450 USD -> 87,500 USD), ETH against USD fell by 1.9% (1,620 USD -> 1,590 USD)
Since the market dipped below the 75,000 USD pivot point after the elections, a week has passed. This week, the coin price has completely stayed above 80,000 to 81,500 USD, further confirming that this double bottom price is a strong support level. Our fundamental view is that the coin price will remain high in the range of 81,000 to 90,000 USD over the next few trading days or even weeks. If the coin price breaks above 91,000 to 92,000 USD, the market will attempt to break through 100,000 USD and then reach new highs again. Conversely, if the coin price falls below 73,000 to 73,000 USD, we will see the price realistically drop to 60,000 to 65,000 USD.
BTC against USD rose by 3.6% (84,450 USD -> 87,500 USD), ETH against USD fell by 1.9% (1,620 USD -> 1,590 USD)
Since the market dipped below the 75,000 USD pivot point after the elections, a week has passed. This week, the coin price has completely stayed above 80,000 to 81,500 USD, further confirming that this double bottom price is a strong support level. Our fundamental view is that the coin price will remain high in the range of 81,000 to 90,000 USD over the next few trading days or even weeks. If the coin price breaks above 91,000 to 92,000 USD, the market will attempt to break through 100,000 USD and then reach new highs again. Conversely, if the coin price falls below 73,000 to 73,000 USD, we will see the price realistically drop to 60,000 to 65,000 USD.
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SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: The Times They Are a-Changin'
Trump’s second term is about to reach its 100th day, but the geopolitical situation has changed dramatically compared to a few months ago. The question is no longer whether the United States will decouple from the world, but how it will decouple; and the United States’ “exorbitant privilege” in the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency system has begun to face substantial challenges.
Correlations between assets are breaking down, capital flows are starting to run in the opposite direction, and Bitcoin is (finally) starting to diverge from stocks. The President is even threatening to treat the Fed Chair like a contestant on (The Apprentice), and large U.S. endowments are dumping illiquid private equity assets at the industry’s most difficult time. Have we truly reached a critical turning point in financial history?
Correlations between assets are breaking down, capital flows are starting to run in the opposite direction, and Bitcoin is (finally) starting to diverge from stocks. The President is even threatening to treat the Fed Chair like a contestant on (The Apprentice), and large U.S. endowments are dumping illiquid private equity assets at the industry’s most difficult time. Have we truly reached a critical turning point in financial history?
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BTC Volatility 2-Week Review (March 31 - April 14)
Key Indicators: (March 31, 4 PM - April 14, 4 PM Hong Kong Time)
BTC against USD rose 3% ($82,000 -> $84,450), ETH against USD fell 11.1% ($1,800 -> $1,620)
Over the past two weeks, despite chaos in other markets, Bitcoin's price has remained quite strong. Last week, the price touched the $74,000 initial resistance level formed since the end of last year's U.S. election twice, subsequently breaking through the mid-term downtrend since January. It is now trapped within a strong support zone of $81,800-$82,300, with strong resistance overhead between $88,000-$90,000.
BTC against USD rose 3% ($82,000 -> $84,450), ETH against USD fell 11.1% ($1,800 -> $1,620)
Over the past two weeks, despite chaos in other markets, Bitcoin's price has remained quite strong. Last week, the price touched the $74,000 initial resistance level formed since the end of last year's U.S. election twice, subsequently breaking through the mid-term downtrend since January. It is now trapped within a strong support zone of $81,800-$82,300, with strong resistance overhead between $88,000-$90,000.
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SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: Red Light, Green Light
After a week of intense geopolitical offensives by the U.S. against other countries, the market finally welcomed a positive conclusion, as President Trump seems to have made significant concessions, announcing that smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices will be excluded from reciprocal tariffs. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection also subsequently stated that these goods would be exempt from the 10% global tariff imposed on most countries.
The Chinese government responded positively, stating that this move is 'a small step towards correcting Washington's erroneous actions and canceling the remaining tariffs.'
The Chinese government responded positively, stating that this move is 'a small step towards correcting Washington's erroneous actions and canceling the remaining tariffs.'
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SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: The Art of the Deal
Is it 'Liberation Day' or 'Liquidation Day'?
Macro assets are plummeting across the board, with the Nasdaq index having fallen nearly 25% from its peak, U.S. stocks down 4%, and the Hong Kong stock market plunging 9% this morning, showing signs of a modern-day 'Black Monday.' The trigger for this recent sell-off comes from China's retaliatory measures against the U.S. (such as rare earth export restrictions), yet no domestic stimulus measures have been introduced to offset the impact. China announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports starting April 10 and placed 11 American companies on the 'unreliable entity list,' along with other targeted countermeasures.
Macro assets are plummeting across the board, with the Nasdaq index having fallen nearly 25% from its peak, U.S. stocks down 4%, and the Hong Kong stock market plunging 9% this morning, showing signs of a modern-day 'Black Monday.' The trigger for this recent sell-off comes from China's retaliatory measures against the U.S. (such as rare earth export restrictions), yet no domestic stimulus measures have been introduced to offset the impact. China announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports starting April 10 and placed 11 American companies on the 'unreliable entity list,' along with other targeted countermeasures.
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BTC Volatility Weekly Review (March 17-24)
Key Indicators (March 17 4 PM - March 24 4 PM Hong Kong Time)
BTC against USD rose by 4.1% (83,500 -> 86,900 thousand dollars), ETH against USD rose by 8.9% (1,900 -> 2,070)
Overview of BTC to USD Spot Technical Indicators
As the currency price has been quite stable within the range of 81.5-87.5 thousand dollars, last week BTC's actual volatility finally began to decline. On March 24, the market appeared to be testing the trend resistance line of the decline since the late February peak. If it crosses above 87.5-88 thousand dollars, the currency price will retest the resistance level of 91 thousand dollars, and further up, 93 thousand dollars will be a resistance point; if it continues to break through, the market will have enough momentum to test the more critical resistance level of 100 thousand dollars.
BTC against USD rose by 4.1% (83,500 -> 86,900 thousand dollars), ETH against USD rose by 8.9% (1,900 -> 2,070)
Overview of BTC to USD Spot Technical Indicators
As the currency price has been quite stable within the range of 81.5-87.5 thousand dollars, last week BTC's actual volatility finally began to decline. On March 24, the market appeared to be testing the trend resistance line of the decline since the late February peak. If it crosses above 87.5-88 thousand dollars, the currency price will retest the resistance level of 91 thousand dollars, and further up, 93 thousand dollars will be a resistance point; if it continues to break through, the market will have enough momentum to test the more critical resistance level of 100 thousand dollars.
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SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: Liberation Day
"April 2 will be a day of liberation for America. Countries around the world, friends and foes alike, have taken advantage of us." - Trump said in the White House Oval Office last Friday.
Market sentiment has stabilized significantly over the past week, and risk assets have stabilized after several weeks of intense selling pressure, and the Trump administration's recent words and deeds have been relatively mild. However, Trump said in a conversation in the Oval Office last Friday that the United States is preparing to announce "Tariff Liberation Day" next Wednesday (April 2), and will impose retaliatory tariffs on countries and allies that have taken trade actions against the United States.
Market sentiment has stabilized significantly over the past week, and risk assets have stabilized after several weeks of intense selling pressure, and the Trump administration's recent words and deeds have been relatively mild. However, Trump said in a conversation in the Oval Office last Friday that the United States is preparing to announce "Tariff Liberation Day" next Wednesday (April 2), and will impose retaliatory tariffs on countries and allies that have taken trade actions against the United States.
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BTC Volatility Weekly Review (March 10 - March 17)
Key Indicators: (March 10, 4 PM → March 17, 4 PM Hong Kong Time)
BTC against USD increased by 1.5% ($82,300 → $83,500), ETH against USD decreased by 8.2% ($2,070 → $1,900)
BTC to USD Spot Technical Indicators Overview
The spot price of Bitcoin continued to decline over the past week, but as the price stabilized within the $80,000–$85,000 range, we finally saw actual volatility begin to decrease. Notably, the price hit a recent low last week, and the market has been closely watching price movements in the following days, trying to guess whether the next major volatility will be upward or downward. Considering we have experienced a prolonged period of high volatility, we believe the price will undergo some adjustments and stabilize, expecting support levels around $78,000–$80,000 in the coming week, with recent resistance at $85,000–$86,000, and further up at $89,500–$92,000.
BTC against USD increased by 1.5% ($82,300 → $83,500), ETH against USD decreased by 8.2% ($2,070 → $1,900)
BTC to USD Spot Technical Indicators Overview
The spot price of Bitcoin continued to decline over the past week, but as the price stabilized within the $80,000–$85,000 range, we finally saw actual volatility begin to decrease. Notably, the price hit a recent low last week, and the market has been closely watching price movements in the following days, trying to guess whether the next major volatility will be upward or downward. Considering we have experienced a prolonged period of high volatility, we believe the price will undergo some adjustments and stabilize, expecting support levels around $78,000–$80,000 in the coming week, with recent resistance at $85,000–$86,000, and further up at $89,500–$92,000.
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SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: How High the Bounce?
Asset markets experienced another roller coaster last week, but with various technical indicators showing extreme oversold conditions (such as the CBOE put-call ratio rising to its highest level since last summer), the market saw a nice rebound on Thursday/Friday. The absence of new tariffs or geopolitical news, the lifting of the risk of a US government shutdown, and the extremely oversold state of US stocks provided momentum for the market's rebound of more than 2% last Friday, but trading volume was still low.
According to Bloomberg, due to the popularity of automated trading systems and strict risk control mechanisms, the SPX index fell more than 10% from its recent high in just 16 days. With the advancement of technology, market corrections are getting faster and faster. The three recent major sell-offs (2018, 2020 and 2025) are among the sharpest corrections on record.
According to Bloomberg, due to the popularity of automated trading systems and strict risk control mechanisms, the SPX index fell more than 10% from its recent high in just 16 days. With the advancement of technology, market corrections are getting faster and faster. The three recent major sell-offs (2018, 2020 and 2025) are among the sharpest corrections on record.
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BTC Volatility Weekly Review (March 3 - March 10)
Key Indicators: (March 3, 4 PM -> March 10, 4 PM Hong Kong Time)
BTC against USD fell by 10.7% ($92,200 -> $82,300), ETH against USD fell by 14.8% ($2,430 -> $2,070)
Overview of BTC to USD Spot Technical Indicators
Due to a series of news and last week's cryptocurrency-related events, market volatility remains high. Ultimately, prices failed to stabilize and continued to swing widely, with downward support at $79,000-$73,000 while upward resistance is at $89,000-$93,000.
BTC against USD fell by 10.7% ($92,200 -> $82,300), ETH against USD fell by 14.8% ($2,430 -> $2,070)
Overview of BTC to USD Spot Technical Indicators
Due to a series of news and last week's cryptocurrency-related events, market volatility remains high. Ultimately, prices failed to stabilize and continued to swing widely, with downward support at $79,000-$73,000 while upward resistance is at $89,000-$93,000.
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SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: FAFOnomics
For readers unfamiliar with the term, 'FAFO' is an abbreviation for 'F— around and find out', which may be the most fitting description of the current global situation.
For readers unfamiliar with the term, 'FAFO' is an abbreviation for 'F— around and find out', which may be the most fitting description of the current global situation.
President Trump's second term has started tumultuously, possibly beyond the expectations of even his most loyal supporters, with investor sentiment affected by his extreme tariff and military negotiation strategies with former and current U.S. allies, leading to continued volatility in the U.S. asset markets, while Wall Street begins to face reality as the government attempts to re-privatize some major sectors of the economy, suggesting an economic slowdown may be on the horizon.
For readers unfamiliar with the term, 'FAFO' is an abbreviation for 'F— around and find out', which may be the most fitting description of the current global situation.
President Trump's second term has started tumultuously, possibly beyond the expectations of even his most loyal supporters, with investor sentiment affected by his extreme tariff and military negotiation strategies with former and current U.S. allies, leading to continued volatility in the U.S. asset markets, while Wall Street begins to face reality as the government attempts to re-privatize some major sectors of the economy, suggesting an economic slowdown may be on the horizon.
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BTC Volatility Weekly Review (February 24 - March 3)
Key indicators: (February 24, 4 PM - March 3, 4 PM Hong Kong time)
BTC against USD fell by 3.9% (from $95,900 to $92,200), ETH against USD fell by 14.1% (from $2,725 to $2,430)
Market volatility unexpectedly surged over the past week. The price of the coin first dropped, and after the collapse of the $89-91k support level that the market had relied on since the election, it fell all the way down to $79k. Interestingly, this volatility can be seen as the end of the correction and sideways movement since last November-December, preparing for a new wave of trends.
BTC against USD fell by 3.9% (from $95,900 to $92,200), ETH against USD fell by 14.1% (from $2,725 to $2,430)
Market volatility unexpectedly surged over the past week. The price of the coin first dropped, and after the collapse of the $89-91k support level that the market had relied on since the election, it fell all the way down to $79k. Interestingly, this volatility can be seen as the end of the correction and sideways movement since last November-December, preparing for a new wave of trends.
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SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: Will the Real 'Trump-Put' Please Stand Up?
The market environment is full of mixed information, and I really don’t know where to start. First of all, cryptocurrency, BTC price plummeted to $78,000 last week. According to Coinglass, more than $3 billion of futures longs were liquidated. BTC is about to usher in its worst single-month performance since June 2022. At the same time, ETFs also saw the largest single-month fund outflow in history ($2.5 billion outflow last week alone).
As prices plummeted, market sentiment deteriorated significantly, with Alternative’s “Fear & Greed” index falling to an extreme low last Friday. The Trump administration then intervened with two pieces of good news, announcing that a “Cryptocurrency Summit” would be held at the White House this week and proposing the inclusion of five tokens in a new strategic reserve (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA).
As prices plummeted, market sentiment deteriorated significantly, with Alternative’s “Fear & Greed” index falling to an extreme low last Friday. The Trump administration then intervened with two pieces of good news, announcing that a “Cryptocurrency Summit” would be held at the White House this week and proposing the inclusion of five tokens in a new strategic reserve (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA).
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BTC Volatility Weekly Review (February 10 - 17)
Key Technical Indicators: (February 10, 4 PM - February 17, 4 PM Hong Kong Time)
BTC down 1.4% against USD ($97,500 → $96,150), ETH up 1.9% against USD ($2,640 → $2,690)
Spot Technical Indicators Overview:
The market has been very quiet this week, trading within a narrow channel (which was derived from the initial wedge pattern). Support is firmly held below $95,750, extending down to $94,000–$95,000; meanwhile, selling continues to be observed above $98,000. Considering the strong support below, we still believe that the price will move out of the current range in the next few trading days. However, as actual volatility continues to decline, implied volatility may take some time to move to the 40s. Current resistance is between $98,000–$99,000, with stronger resistance appearing above $100,000; if the $94,000–$95,700 level is broken, stronger support will emerge at $89,000–$91,000.
BTC down 1.4% against USD ($97,500 → $96,150), ETH up 1.9% against USD ($2,640 → $2,690)
Spot Technical Indicators Overview:
The market has been very quiet this week, trading within a narrow channel (which was derived from the initial wedge pattern). Support is firmly held below $95,750, extending down to $94,000–$95,000; meanwhile, selling continues to be observed above $98,000. Considering the strong support below, we still believe that the price will move out of the current range in the next few trading days. However, as actual volatility continues to decline, implied volatility may take some time to move to the 40s. Current resistance is between $98,000–$99,000, with stronger resistance appearing above $100,000; if the $94,000–$95,700 level is broken, stronger support will emerge at $89,000–$91,000.
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SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: Slow Grind
Macro markets have entered a low-volatility consolidation phase, with sentiment returning to the familiar “Goldilocks” pattern, with stocks and bonds inching higher on benign economic data and lower volatility.
The Trump administration once again released new developments regarding tariffs, but the market reaction was relatively cold, indicating that the market has gradually become immune to such news. The latest reciprocal tariffs policy has been postponed to April 1, and will be reviewed against major trading partners such as Canada, Mexico, India and China.
Overall, although the market has many imaginations about Trump's policies in his second term, Trump-related transactions have not performed well this year, lagging significantly behind the broader market index. The US dollar and crude oil prices have fallen sharply, while emerging market stocks and foreign exchange have performed relatively strongly.
The Trump administration once again released new developments regarding tariffs, but the market reaction was relatively cold, indicating that the market has gradually become immune to such news. The latest reciprocal tariffs policy has been postponed to April 1, and will be reviewed against major trading partners such as Canada, Mexico, India and China.
Overall, although the market has many imaginations about Trump's policies in his second term, Trump-related transactions have not performed well this year, lagging significantly behind the broader market index. The US dollar and crude oil prices have fallen sharply, while emerging market stocks and foreign exchange have performed relatively strongly.
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BTC Volatility Weekly Review (February 3-10)
Key indicators (February 3-10, 4pm Hong Kong time)
BTC/USD rose 2.5% ($95.1k -> $97.5k), and ETH/USD rose 2.3% ($2.58k -> $2.75k).
Last Monday’s liquidation-induced decline (to $91k) quickly reversed, initially being squeezed up to $102k, before forming a somewhat boring one-sided wedge and causing realized volatility compression. As the short-term price range continues to compress, we may see a turning point in price in the next trading sessions. Below the current price, there is strong support from $96k all the way to $93k, and further major support range is $91–89k. Given last week’s liquidations, the current market position may be clearer. Above the price, the $100k resistance level was strongly rejected after the release of the non-farm data last Friday, and there is resistance at $102k higher. After the price breaks this point, the technical charts will see a clear trend higher until we re-test the major overhead resistance between $108k-110k and the all-time high.
BTC/USD rose 2.5% ($95.1k -> $97.5k), and ETH/USD rose 2.3% ($2.58k -> $2.75k).
Last Monday’s liquidation-induced decline (to $91k) quickly reversed, initially being squeezed up to $102k, before forming a somewhat boring one-sided wedge and causing realized volatility compression. As the short-term price range continues to compress, we may see a turning point in price in the next trading sessions. Below the current price, there is strong support from $96k all the way to $93k, and further major support range is $91–89k. Given last week’s liquidations, the current market position may be clearer. Above the price, the $100k resistance level was strongly rejected after the release of the non-farm data last Friday, and there is resistance at $102k higher. After the price breaks this point, the technical charts will see a clear trend higher until we re-test the major overhead resistance between $108k-110k and the all-time high.
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SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: Return-Free Risk
The market has opened 2025 amid a series of unfavorable beginnings and unresolved price movements. Under the shocking market narrative of DeepSeek and Trump's occasional tariff threats, risk assets are struggling to find direction.
Economic data is currently of secondary importance; January's non-farm payroll data came in slightly below expectations, but the unemployment rate also dropped to 4%, resulting in a muted market reaction. Federal funds futures currently price in only a 9% chance of a rate cut at the March FOMC meeting, with a complete rate cut priced in only after five meetings in September, weakening the Fed's influence in the current narrative.
Economic data is currently of secondary importance; January's non-farm payroll data came in slightly below expectations, but the unemployment rate also dropped to 4%, resulting in a muted market reaction. Federal funds futures currently price in only a 9% chance of a rate cut at the March FOMC meeting, with a complete rate cut priced in only after five meetings in September, weakening the Fed's influence in the current narrative.
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BTC Volatility Weekly Review (January 27 - February 3)
Key indicators: (January 27, 4 PM - February 3, 4 PM Hong Kong time)
BTC against USD fell 3.8% ($98,800 to $95,100), ETH against USD fell 16.0% ($3,070 to $2,580)
BTC against USD Spot Technical Indicators Overview:
BTC against USD successfully rebounded from our marked key support level of $98,000 early last week, attempting several times to break above $106,000 in the following week but ultimately failing to gain enough momentum to form a new upward trend. By the weekend, due to Trump's tariff news and the market holding weak longs above $102,000, a strong liquidation was triggered, causing the price to drop below $98,000, then further extending downwards to briefly hit $91,000.
BTC against USD fell 3.8% ($98,800 to $95,100), ETH against USD fell 16.0% ($3,070 to $2,580)
BTC against USD Spot Technical Indicators Overview:
BTC against USD successfully rebounded from our marked key support level of $98,000 early last week, attempting several times to break above $106,000 in the following week but ultimately failing to gain enough momentum to form a new upward trend. By the weekend, due to Trump's tariff news and the market holding weak longs above $102,000, a strong liquidation was triggered, causing the price to drop below $98,000, then further extending downwards to briefly hit $91,000.
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Trump100Days
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#Trump100Days
DOMESTIC SHOCKWAVES
Trump came in like a wrecking ball signing executive orders faster than headlines could keep up.
✍️ Travel ban
🧱 Border wall push
🗑️ Regulatory rollbacks
Supporters cheered “action” while critics warned of chaos.
Result? Major legal fights, protests in the streets, and a divided nation from Day 1.
⚖️ GOVERNMENT VS. THE OUTSIDER
Trump tried to bulldoze D.C. like it was one of his hotels.
❌ Obamacare repeal? Blocked.
🌀 Staff turnover? Wild.
📰 Media? Fake News 🙀 battles daily.
He ran the White House like a reality show except the stakes were global.
🌍 GLOBAL SHOCKS & SIGNALS
Campaign Trump: “No more wars!”
President Trump: launches missiles into Syria
🛡️ NATO shade
🤝 Flirtations with Putin
🚢 Tensions in the South China Sea
Allies were nervous. Rivals were watching. The rules? Rewritten.
🎭 THE REBRAND OF THE PRESIDENCY
This wasn’t business as usual it was personal rule, CEO-style.
Loyalty mattered more than experience
Speeches gave way to tweets
Institutions bent under the weight of personality
Whether you called it disruption or destruction, one thing was clear🤞 the Trump Era had begun.
Satoshi Jakamoto
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