$Tesla (TSLA) $ 【Robotaxi Launches, Can Tesla Tell Another Big Valuation Story?】
Tesla has launched its first batch of Robotaxi trial operations in Austin, where passengers can pay $4.20 to experience the driverless service. This is seen as another milestone following the Model S and Cybertruck. Last night, the stock briefly surged over 11% during trading, ultimately closing up 8.2%.
However, regulators are not buying it. Some issues were raised in the first-day testing videos of Tesla's Robotaxi, successfully catching the attention of U.S. automotive safety regulators. They are currently conducting an investigation to collect more cases of traffic violations and safety issues. If these bugs remain unfixed for too long, it's possible that the Robotaxi could be recalled and not allowed on the road.
From the options market perspective, investor sentiment is relatively rational: the 30-day implied volatility is 67%, at a year-to-date low; the implied volatility for contracts expiring this week is ±5%, with Max Pain pegged at $320, and market maker positions suggest a tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the $330–350 range.
On the other hand, there are concerns regarding delivery data. Third-party forecasting agencies like TroyTeslike have lowered their Q2 delivery expectations to 350,000–395,000 vehicles, below market expectations at the beginning of the year and last year's levels. In other words, whether the Robotaxi concept can offset sales pressure still needs to be tested against reality.
Is Robotaxi a new growth engine, or just an old story repackaged? With quarterly delivery data set to be released soon, Tesla's stock direction may depend not only on whether the cars can drive but also on whether the earnings narrative makes sense.
Not investment advice.