$Circle(CRCL)$ 【USDC Enters Offline Payment, Is Circle's Valuation Restructuring Starting?】
Circle surged to $298.99 during yesterday's trading session before retreating to the $250 range. In news, payment giant Fiserv announced the integration of USDC into its bank and merchant settlement network, marking the first large-scale penetration of stablecoins into the traditional financial system. The initial form of the stablecoin 'card fee' model has emerged, which may become key for Circle in hedging against the decline in reserve interest during the interest rate cut cycle.
Currently, the circulation of USDC has surpassed 61.2 billion, with an annual growth of 90%, outperforming similar products. The options market has entered an extreme state: 30-day implied volatility has soared to 175%, the IV Rank reached 93.7%, and the Put/Call ratio for contracts expiring on June 27 is as high as 2.55, with Max Pain pressed at $220, leading to a steep rise in short hedging costs, as bulls and bears engage in fierce battles over 'regulatory landing expectations'.
In the short term, the valuation anchor has gradually shifted from reserve interest to revenue from payment channels; in the medium to long term, whether Circle can replicate Visa's business model depends on regulatory progress and the stickiness of stablecoin usage. Against the backdrop of high IV, the cost of directional bets is extremely high, and how to balance risk through volatility strategies has also become a key point of interest.
Will the entry of stablecoins into offline payments open a 'golden period for channel fees'? In the context of soaring volatility, which type of hedging strategy do you prefer?
This is not investment advice.
