Core judgment: The $108k resistance area suppresses rebound momentum; be cautious of bull traps while the weekly downward channel remains unbroken.
I. Liquidity gaps and intraday probability distribution
$105,000-$105,700 (bearish short-covering zone)
Basis: Price has tested $108,090 twice and then retraced, forming short-term support with the June 25 daily low of $105,754. CME futures open interest accumulation of $172 million hedging, with on-chain monitoring showing sovereign funds intervening with over 500 BTC buy orders in the $105,200-$105,800 range, and the options market has a 38% open interest share for $105,000 put contracts forming a buffer.
Intraday drop probability: 42% (requires ETF net outflow exceeding $120 million in a single day to trigger).
$108,000-$108,500 (bullish stop-loss dense zone)
Basis: The current high point of $108,090 on June 26 coincides with the upper boundary of the weekly downward channel (connecting the highs of $110,649.5/$108,973.3), with Binance's active buy ratio at 50.91%, exposing retail investors' willingness to chase after price.
Breakthrough probability: 35% (requires sustained volume above $4.5 billion/hour and no worsening of geopolitical conditions).
II. Market structure and behavior analysis
Weekly level trend suppression signal
Downward channel confirmation: Price is still constrained by the downward trend line at $108,500, with the channel's lower boundary moving down to $98,800 (extending from the December 2024 low).
Volume-price divergence: During the rebound on June 25, trading volume decreased by 8.6% compared to the previous day, forming a divergence with the price increase, indicating insufficient buying sustainability.
Intraday bulls-bears contention focus
$105,700 psychological barrier:
Middle Eastern sovereign funds have placed orders exceeding 1,500 BTC in the $105,000-$105,700 range, resisting the threshold for whale liquidations.
Failure will trigger liquidation of 2,430 BTC level long positions, accelerating the slide towards $104,200.
$108,000 technical resistance:
Institutional hedging positions accumulation (CME open interest $17.22 billion), resonating with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level ($108,228).
Breakthrough requires on-chain whale short liquidation volume > 2,500 BTC (currently at a compliance rate of 31%).
Bulls-bears strength comparison
Short-term bullish advantage:
US dollar index falls for four consecutive days (cumulative -0.17%), weakening the pressure on safe-haven assets, with clear signs of capital outflow from gold (gold index +0.27%).
4-hour RSI (70.57) overbought zone sticking together, MACD histogram turning red shows momentum recovery.
Bearish structure suppression:
Weekly EMA50 ($107,500) crossing below EMA200 forms a death cross, with an average decline of 18% following similar signals in the last three years.
On-chain data shows that whale shorts have an average floating profit of 2.69%, with unrealized profits of $19.27 million, indicating a motive to add positions.
III. Technical structure and path deduction
Divergence signals and cycle resonance
Daily level: OBV cumulative volume slowly rising, indicating slow accumulation by main funds.
4-hour level: Bollinger Bands narrowing (bandwidth reduced to $2,300), Stoch RSI dual lines in the overbought zone are sticking together, with short-term pullback pressure accumulating.
Intraday path probabilities
Pullback scenario (58%):
Price blocked at $108,000 and retracing → testing support at $105,700 → if broken, sliding towards the liquidity gap at $104,200.
Catalytic conditions: Federal Reserve SLR policy rollout falling short of expectations or renewed uncertainties in Israel-Palestine conflict.
Continuation of the rebound (42%):
US CPI data below expectations → US dollar index breaks below 97 → fund flows back to risk assets pushing to test $109,400.
IV. Weekly trend warnings and key monitoring
Major cycle turning signal:
If the weekly close is below $105,000 (June 22 low), it will confirm the effectiveness of the downward channel, with a mid-term target pointing to $101,800 (support level in November 2024).
Reversal requires weekly recovery above $108,500 accompanied by ETF weekly net inflow exceeding $700 million.
Core monitoring indicators:
Geopolitical indicators: Iran's parliament suspends IAEA cooperation progress, updates on damage assessment of Israeli nuclear facilities.
On-chain anomalies: Whale addresses transferring > 4,000 BTC to exchanges within an hour (strong selling pressure pre-warning signal).
Options market: Changes in open interest for $108,000 call contracts (reflecting institutional expectations).
Model tracing: CryptoQuant on-chain liquidation heatmap + Bloomberg macro risk model (index 0.65) + weekly wave theory count
Report validity: June 26, 2025, 08:00
Statement: This report is based on multi-dimensional data model analysis; adjustments to Federal Reserve policy may cause sudden liquidity changes.
$108,000 as the short-term bulls-bears dividing line, a breakthrough needs to validate volume sustainability.
Author: Liu Yi to Xun. Collaborative creation!#加密市场反弹 #鲍威尔半年度货币政策证词