Core judgment: Geopolitical black swan severely impacts the market, and after losing weekly-level support, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears enters a new stage.

Liquidity gap and intraday probability distribution

$98,000-$98,800 (panic selling buffer zone)

Based on: After the price quickly rebounded to $98,133 (a new low for the year), on-chain monitoring detected sovereign funds intervening with over 500 BTC buy orders in the $98,200-$98,500 range. The open interest of put contracts at $98,000 in the options market surged by 62%, creating a short-term support effect.

Probability of breaking intraday: 45% (requires extreme events such as Iran blocking the Hormuz Strait to trigger).

$100,200-$100,700 (resistance recovery area)

Based on: The CME futures gap ($100,228) resonates with the June 22 low, Grayscale's average reduction price of $100,329 forms a trapped selling pressure, Binance's active sell orders account for 51.27%, exposing retail liquidation selling pressure.

Breakthrough probability: 38% (requires ETF net inflows exceeding $200 million in a single day).

Market structure and behavior analysis

Weekly trend deterioration signal

Double top pattern confirmation: Connecting the June 10 high of $110,649 and the June 17 high of $108,973, the lower boundary of the descending channel has moved down to $96,500 (extended line of the November 2024 low).

Change in chip distribution: Over the past 7 days, the exchange balance increased by 2,959 BTC, reversing the previous trend of continuous net outflows, indicating that some long-term holders have started to panic sell.

Focus of intraday bull-bear tug-of-war

$98,000 psychological defense line:

Buy orders over $3,200 BTC are placed between $97,800-$98,200, countering the on-chain whale liquidation threshold ($98,003).

Losing this level will trigger liquidation of 4,866 BTC long positions, accelerating a slide towards $96,000.

$100,700 bearish fortress:

Institutional hedging positions accumulating (CME open interest at $15.09 billion), forming technical resonance with the June 19 low of $100,333.

A breakthrough requires trading volume to consistently exceed $5 billion/hour; the current achievement rate is only 29%.

Comparison of bullish and bearish forces

Remaining advantage of bulls:

US dollar index peaks and retreats (+0.41% before giving back gains), gold's safe-haven attribute weakens (gold index -0.06%), and capital rotation pressure slightly alleviates.

4-hour RSI (25.37) hits a new low for the year, with oversold recovery demand accumulating.

Short-selling suppression logic:

Geopolitical premium continues: US B-2 bomber fleet with bunker busters deployed to Guam, Iranian parliament threatens to withdraw (from the Non-Proliferation Treaty).

On-chain data shows that whales' short positions have an average unrealized gain of 7.36%, with unrealized profits reaching $16.11 million, indicating a need for profit-taking.

Technical structure and path deduction

Divergence signals and cycle mismatches

Daily level: MACD histogram narrowing (-104.03→-86.58), new price low while the indicator does not create a new low, bottom divergence prototype emerging.

4-hour level: The lower Bollinger Band is flattening ($96,800), Stoch RSI dual lines are in the oversold zone, short-term rebound momentum is accumulating.

Intraday path probability

Reversal scenario (55%):

Price rebounds relying on $98,000 support → Tests the $100,200 resistance area → If blocked, retraces to $99,500 for consolidation.

Catalytic conditions: Turkey mediating progress in US-Iran negotiations or Trump urgently calls for interest rate cuts.

Breaking scenario (45%):

Iran's actual implementation of the Hormuz Strait blockade → Panic selling breaks through $97,800 → On-chain long position liquidation wave pushes the price down to $96,000.

Weekly trend warnings and monitoring checklist

Major cycle turning signal:

If the weekly close is below $98,300 (December 2024 high), the mid-term target is adjusted down to $92,000 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level).

A reversal requires a weekly close above $103,400, accompanied by ETF net inflows exceeding $1 billion per week.

Key monitoring indicators:

Geopolitical indicators: Real-time monitoring of shipping in the Hormuz Strait (MarineTraffic data), radiation monitoring of Iranian nuclear facilities (IAEA bulletin).

Capital movement: Whether CME futures open interest falls below $14.5 billion (the threshold for bulls to completely abandon).

On-chain unusual movement: A whale address transferred over 3,000 BTC to exchanges within an hour (sign of strong selling pressure).

Model sourcing: CryptoQuant on-chain liquidation heatmap + Bloomberg geopolitical risk model (index 0.72) + weekly Elliott wave counting

Report validity: June 23, 2025, 06:00

Statement: This report is based on multi-dimensional data modeling, and geopolitical conflicts may cause the model to become invalid instantly.

The $98,000 defense line is a short-term watershed between bulls and bears; breaking it requires caution against liquidity traps.

Author: Liu Yi Dao Xun. Co-creation by partners.