$Coinbase Global(COIN)$ [Stablecoin track shifts gears: COIN and Circle's "pumping machine" alliance]
Coinbase is the largest crypto exchange in North America and the co-creator of USDC; Circle is responsible for issuance and custody, and Coinbase is responsible for channel distribution. According to Circle S-1, the interest income generated by USDC is divided equally between the two parties after deducting costs. If stored on the Coinbase platform, Coinbase can get 100%. In 2024, this item has contributed about US$900 million in cash flow, accounting for about 14% of Coinbase's annual revenue.
In June, the Senate passed the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act", requiring reserves to hold short-term bonds in full and disclose them monthly, labeling USDC as "compliant real US dollars"; Circle and Coinbase stock prices both rose immediately. If the House of Representatives approves it later, the penetration rate of USDC as the underlying currency for cross-border payments and on-chain settlement is expected to increase, and the high interest rate window period is still there, which is equivalent to giving COIN a "cash pump" that continues to print money.
The options confirm the expectations of bulls: the implied volatility of the entire contract is only 63%, the IV Rank is 30%, but there is a 3-fold increase in volume, and the call/put volume ratio is as low as 0.41-funds tend to build long orders in low-volatility areas rather than chasing ups and downs.
