1. Dual Benefits of Geopolitics and Policy Catalyze Market Euphoria

The news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran became a turning point for the market. Trump announced on social media that the two sides would gradually end military actions within 6 hours and achieve a full ceasefire after 12 hours. This news quickly spread to the crypto market, combined with rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum to enter a surge mode.


The shift in Federal Reserve policy direction serves as a strong boost to the market. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market's expectation probability for maintaining a 4.25% interest rate in November plummeted from 17.1% to 8.4%, while the probability of rates falling below 3.75% surged from 38% to 53%. Institutional investors are accelerating their shift from traditional fixed-income assets to cryptocurrencies in search of higher yield flexibility.

(1) Bitcoin: 10% rebound completed in 48 hours

BTC price quickly rebounded from a low of $98,500 on Sunday, reaching a high of $106,000, with a 24-hour trading volume surpassing $35 billion. On-chain data shows that whale addresses (holding over 10,000 BTC) increased their holdings by 23,000 coins in one day, and the Grayscale GBTC premium rate narrowed from -18% to -12%, significantly easing institutional redemption pressure.

(2) Ethereum: Recovering lost ground and refreshing phase highs

ETH price surged 9% to $2,408, successfully recovering all losses from the weekend. The Layer 2 ecosystem's locked value increased by 15% to $13.5 billion, with transactions on second-layer networks like Arbitrum and Base hitting all-time highs. The derivatives market shows that the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts rose to +0.03%, with leveraged long positions regaining market dominance.

(3) XRP and SOL: Excess Returns Driven by Themes

XRP saw a daily increase of 9% influenced by the passage of the stablecoin bill in the U.S. Senate, breaking the resistance level of $2.1; Solana surged 11% to $48, driven by the narrative of Kazakhstan's economic zone, with the number of active addresses on-chain skyrocketing by 28%. Notably, Dogecoin, Cardano, and other cryptocurrencies also rose in tandem, showing a clear trend of market-wide increases.

3. Market Liquidation and Future Outlook

(1) Capital Game: Bears Encounter Massive Short Squeeze

The cryptocurrency market had a total liquidation amount of $491 million in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for 76% ($376 million). The largest single liquidation for Bitcoin occurred at the $102,000 level, with over $50 million in short positions being forcibly liquidated; ETH had a liquidation amount of $140 million near $2,350, forming a significant short squeeze effect.

(2) Technical and Sentiment Indicators Resonance

After Bitcoin stabilized above $106,000, 79% of the market predicts that the price will remain above $100,000 before June 27. The RSI indicator quickly rebounded from the oversold zone (30) to 65, indicating strong bullish momentum; Ethereum's $2,400 has become a new strong support level, and breaking through $2,450 will open up upward space.

(3) Risks and Opportunities Coexist

Despite the concentration of short-term positive factors, three major risks should be heeded: the uncertainty of the implementation of the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement, the fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and regulatory uncertainties regarding the SEC's stance on spot ETFs. Historical data shows that after such event-driven surges, the market typically experiences 2-3 days of profit-taking, suggesting that investors should reduce some profit positions on high, keeping their core holdings to respond to subsequent market conditions.


Conclusion: The 'timing and location' formed by the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and the shift in Federal Reserve policy brings a phase of recovery to the crypto market. However, with uncertainties still present in geopolitical and monetary policies, investors should remain rational amidst the euphoria, focusing on BTC's resistance breakout at $108,000 and ETH's pressure test at $2,450, adjusting positions flexibly to respond to market fluctuations.
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