One, the core logic and data anchors of the Changelly prediction model

On-chain analysis platform Changelly has released its latest price prediction report for Shiba Inu (SHIB), proposing a highly controversial long-term outlook based on its dynamic valuation model adjustment: if the prediction holds, SHIB's price will achieve a 108,723% increase by the end of 2050, reaching a historical peak of $0.0185. This prediction is based on three major assumptions:


  1. Deepening the token deflation mechanism: Assuming the SHIB burning mechanism continues to be effective, the total circulation will decrease from the current 589 trillion to 350 trillion by 2050, resulting in a 40% contraction on the supply side;

  2. Scaling of ecological applications: It is expected that after 2030, SHIB's penetration rate in decentralized finance (DeFi), metaverse payments, and other scenarios will reach 5%, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 28%;

  3. Macroeconomic liquidity premium: Assuming the global fiat currency inflation rate remains at 3.5% in the 2040s, the allocation ratio of cryptocurrencies as anti-inflation assets will increase to 15% of the investment portfolio.

Two, theoretical calculations of investment returns and real-world discounts

(1) Wealth effect in an ideal state

Based on the current SHIB price of $0.0000117, $1,000 can purchase approximately 85.47 million tokens. If it reaches $0.0185 by 2050:


  • Total position value = 85.47 million × $0.0185 ≈ $1.58 million

  • Annualized return = ln(1580/1)^(1/25) - 1 ≈ 29.3%

(2) Real purchasing power adjusted for inflation

Considering a 3% annual inflation rate, $1.58 million in 2050 is equivalent to:


  • Real purchasing power = 1.58 million / (1+3%)^25 ≈ $678,000
    This amount can only cover the down payment for a medium-sized apartment in first-tier cities in 2050 (based on a current house price increase of 2% annually).

Three, key premises and risk variables for achieving the prediction

(1) Supporting factors for the optimistic scenario

  1. Successful technological iteration: If SHIB completes the transformation from memecoin to functional token, for example, integrating Layer 2 scaling solutions, transaction processing speed will increase to 2000 TPS;

  2. Clear regulatory framework: Assuming major economies like the US and EU introduce a cryptocurrency classification regulatory bill by 2030, SHIB will be defined as a 'utility token';

  3. Institutional capital entry: It is expected that after 2040, 2% of the traditional asset management scale (AUM) will be allocated to SHIB-related products, bringing in approximately $80 billion in incremental funds.

(2) A risk checklist that cannot be ignored

Risk types specific impact performance occurrence probability Deflation mechanism failure annual burning rate below 1%, circulation volume increases by 35% ecological competition failure diversion of users by emerging memecoins (e.g., Pepe, Bonk) 40% policy systemic risk major countries issuing token sales bans 25% technical security vulnerabilities smart contract attacks leading to market cap evaporation 15%

Four, strategic recommendations for rational investment

(1) Position management principles

  • The long-term allocation ratio should not exceed 3% of the investment portfolio, with a single investment not exceeding 10% of the funds that can be lost;

  • Adopt a 'regular investment + buy on dips' strategy, accumulating positions in batches within the price range of $0.00001 to $0.000015.

(2) Key indicator tracking

  1. On-chain data: Daily burning volume (currently about 12 million / day), number of active addresses (must maintain above 50,000);

  2. Ecological progress: Number of cooperative projects (must exceed 50 by the end of 2025), proportion of trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) (must exceed 15%);

  3. Market sentiment: Google search popularity (monthly average search volume for the SHIB keyword must remain above 1 million), social media mentions (over 20,000 tweets per day on Twitter).

(3) Scenario response plan

  • Optimistic scenario: When the price breaks through $0.00005, reduce 50% of the position to lock in profits, and set a stop loss at $0.00003 for the remaining position;

  • Neutral scenario: When the price fluctuates in the range of $0.00001 to $0.00003, execute high sell low buy, conducting grid trading every 5% fluctuation;

  • Pessimistic scenario: When the price falls below $0.000008, stop loss on 30% of the position, and wait for the rebound opportunity after the burning mechanism takes effect on the remaining position.


Conclusion: Changelly's prediction is essentially an extreme extrapolation of the 'long tail effect of cryptocurrencies', reflecting the market's expectation for SHIB to transition from a speculative target to a value asset. However, investors need to be aware that over a span of 25 years, technological iterations, regulatory environments, and market structures may undergo disruptive changes. Instead of chasing 'life-changing returns', a more pragmatic approach is to consider SHIB as an experimental asset with high-risk allocation, participating in this decades-long market game with funds that can withstand losses while fully understanding its zero fundamental value.

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