Just when the market generally believed that cryptocurrencies were caught in a short-term oscillation, Bitcoin strongly broke through $106,000, with an intraday increase of 5%, refreshing the recent high point again. Once the news broke, traders instantly heated up: 'Is it really taking off this time?'
But real market movements are never just ignited by a single piece of news; they are a resonance result of macro expectations + technical confirmations + capital structure. This increase is no exception.
This wave of increase is not just a stimulant brought by news.
This time, Bitcoin's rise is a typical market driven by macro factors + technical breakthrough resonance. Let's restore the logical chain of the market:
This type of 'news → sentiment → expectations → asset prices' transmission path is not unfamiliar in historical markets. We have seen similar scenarios in 2020 and 2022 — just that the underlying variables are different, but the script of sentiment is surprisingly similar.
History tells us: Macroeconomic-driven reversals are not a first.
You might ask: Can a 'Middle East ceasefire agreement' really cause Bitcoin to rise by 5% and break through a key level? Is the market overreacting? In fact, if you look back at history, every major market movement is never just about 'news,' but rather a collective shift in market expectations for the future.
Case 1: In March 2020, the Federal Reserve's unlimited QE ignited a long-term bull market in the cryptocurrency space.
In March 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic led to a global market crash, the Federal Reserve launched an unprecedented liquidity easing policy:
On March 15, a $700 billion asset purchase plan was initiated;
On March 23, unlimited QE was announced — a commitment to asset purchases with no upper limit.
At that time, Bitcoin dropped to a stage low of $3,858, but rebounded all the way back, eventually reaching an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, an increase of nearly 1700%.
What similarities does this have with the 2025 Middle East ceasefire market?
Although 2020 was a concrete policy implementation, and now it's just 'expectations warming up,' the strengths are different, but the market logic is consistent: liquidity expectations rise, and risk assets are the first to react. Of course, expecting Bitcoin to replicate that kind of tenfold surge like in 2020 is indeed a bit unrealistic. However, under the current structure of 'sentiment repair + capital inflow,' a bullish stance remains the trend.
Case 2: Early 2022, at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war — a brief rebound followed by a quick reversal.
In February 2022, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war triggered market panic, and Bitcoin temporarily fell from $39,000 to $35,000. The market then began to assess the impact of the war on global inflation, with risk appetite temporarily rebounding, and Bitcoin rebounding to around $42,000 in March. However, good times did not last long:
Starting in April, the Federal Reserve signaled aggressive interest rate hikes;
In May, the LUNA/UST collapse triggered systemic panic;
Bitcoin's price plummeted to $26,000 in May, with sentiment quickly turning to panic.
This history serves as a warning: even if geopolitical easing can lead to a short-term rebound, if macro policies and industry risks do not align, the market is unlikely to sustain.
This is exactly the key point we want to emphasize: rebounds can start with sentiment, but whether they can go far depends on structural support.
The technical aspect is not a supporting role, but a 'confirming agent.'
Macroeconomic expectations can ignite market sentiment, but for the market to truly move, the technical aspects must 'keep up' with the sentiment. From the current BTC trend, the technical side is gradually completing the confirmation and relay after the breakout:
In the 1-hour chart, after BTC broke through the $105,000 major level, a large bullish candle appeared, followed by a long upper shadow in the candlestick, indicating increased short-term selling pressure.
The 1-hour level DIF crosses above DEA, with the histogram expanding, indicating clear momentum release.
Although the 1-hour RSI has fallen from overbought to 65, it still maintains a strong structure.
With the custom indicator function of AiCoin, I plotted EMA7/30/120 respectively. The BTC price stabilizes above EMA7, with EMA7/30/120 arranged in a typical bullish pattern (EMA7 > EMA30 > EMA120) trend.
The main force's intent to accumulate is clear, with buying transactions far exceeding selling transactions, and the average buying price significantly higher than the selling average, indicating that the main force is actively chasing prices for accumulation; meanwhile, the chip range is concentrated above 102K, becoming a key defense level. If it stabilizes after a subsequent pullback, it may serve as the foundation for the next upward attack.
Overall, although there is still selling pressure in the short term, the medium-term trend, structure, and volume coordination are good, providing a technical foundation for prices to rise further.
It's not a celebration, but the beginning of structural repair.
From the macro aspect to the technical aspect, we see a collaborative performance of expectation repair + trend confirmation:
Geopolitical situation easing + interest rate cut expectations warming up → leads to capital inflow;
Technical structure completing the breakout → sentiment is confirmed;
Historical cases prove that the market reacts in advance to changes in expectations.
Of course, the current market does not possess the certainty of a long-term bull market like in 2020, but as history has often shown us: as long as sentiment and structure resonate, it is worth following the trend.
Market movements are not driven by faith, but by continuous correction and following. You don't need to bet on how high it will go, just understand what it is currently saying.