🔥 Event Review
Recent ETH market performance has been exceptionally volatile. At the beginning of market opening, a large number of leveraged short positions were forcibly liquidated in the ETH and Bitcoin derivatives markets, creating a significant short squeeze effect. Funds were quickly replenished in an instant, pushing ETH from around $2340 to over $2400, and it surged to about $2440. Subsequently, some profit-taking caused the price to briefly retreat to around $2397. This process felt like an intense game, with the market constantly tugging between leverage liquidation and fund replenishment, showing significant emotional fluctuations.
⏳ Timeline
06:01: Market opening, multiple leveraged short positions triggered liquidation, and funds surged in; ETH price began a rapid rebound from $2340.
06:01–06:12: In just 11 minutes, ETH quickly rose from about $2340 to $2410, with an increase of 2.99%, showing that buying pressure quickly gained the upper hand.
06:11: ETH broke through the key resistance level of $2400, further boosting market confidence.
06:01–06:24: Driven by continuous buying pressure, ETH price rose from $2402 to $2440, with an increase of about 1.60%.
06:41: After a rapid rise, some technical profit-taking led to a brief retreat in price to $2397.37, indicating that the market is in a short-term adjustment phase.
🔍 Reason Analysis
Leverage liquidation triggered short squeeze
In the market, a large number of leveraged short positions encountered forced liquidation, and the chain stop-loss effect quickly liquidated the short positions. In this moment, funds surged into buying, pushing ETH price to rebound rapidly.Support from macro policies and liquidity environment
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged, coupled with stable employment data, reducing policy uncertainty. At the same time, the issuance of stablecoins on multiple chains and large amounts of USDT inflow into exchanges created a loose financing environment, providing ample liquidity for the market and further pushing up mainstream asset prices.
📊 Technical Analysis
This analysis is based on [ETH/USDT Binance USDT perpetual 45-minute] candlestick data, resulting in the following observations:
Price trend and Bollinger Bands: The current price is operating along the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a strong upward trend, but nearing the upper band suggests that overbought risks are gradually accumulating.
KDJ indicator status: The KDJ indicator has entered the overbought area, and the indicators are converging, suggesting that a pullback signal may arrive in the short term.
Surge in trading volume: Trading volume increased by 60.01% compared to before, significantly enhancing market activity, but divergence between trading volume and price trends should also be monitored.
Bullish moving average arrangement: The price is currently above the MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and EMA short, medium, and long-term moving averages, showing a clear bullish trend in the moving average arrangement, with EMA20 slope reaching 1.66%. The MACD histogram has reached new highs, indicating strong upward momentum.
Short-term pullback risk: Although the technical outlook is generally bullish, some indicators (such as the TD price reversal pattern) suggest there may be profit-taking risks in the short term, and investors should closely monitor changes in support levels and manage positions carefully.
🚀 Market Outlook
In the face of extreme market fluctuations, ETH may oscillate within a high range in the short term. If subsequent buying continues to support, breaking through the upper resistance and firmly standing above the main moving averages, it is expected to open the door for further upward movement; conversely, facing overbought risks and some technical bearish signals, the market may also undergo a phase adjustment.
From a medium to long-term perspective, under the support of macro favorable policies and ample liquidity environment, mainstream assets are still expected to continue the upward trend. However, in the current phase of extreme volatility, investors are advised to remain cautious, rationally allocate, and closely monitor key technical indicators and changes in market sentiment, adjusting positions timely to avoid risks.
In summary, the recent drastic fluctuations in ETH reflect both the intense collision of market sentiment and the interplay of multiple forces from technical and fundamental aspects. The future trend needs market participants to continuously observe changes in trading volume, leverage positioning dynamics, and new developments in macro policies.
