Master chats about hot topics:
I thought I'd have a quiet weekend, but woke up to see the geopolitical conflict escalate. The global market is playing dead, and US stocks are closed. It’s still the crypto world operating 24/7; now it’s good, directly cushioning global sentiment.
The key is still that the liquidity is weakest over the weekend; any random news can trigger wild swings, while there’s hardly any strong reaction on normal working days. Now, if panic amplifies, Bitcoin has to bear it, and even the Federal Reserve is too lazy to watch oil prices.
That being said, this wave of decline seems a bit excessive; oil prices have risen, but old Powell has already stated that such a surge in oil prices caused by geopolitical conflicts will soon revert, and the Federal Reserve doesn't take it seriously at all.
Speaking of market trends, last night it hit the expected point of 98K that I mentioned in my June 13 article, and then it bounced back up. That wave of dipping to the 92K-93K gap would need a stronger negative impact to fill.
The same goes for Ethereum; 2110 is a critical level that I previously mentioned as being validated multiple times. Last night's halt was reasonable, nothing much to say. But if you think last night's drop is a golden opportunity, then I advise you to calm down. That’s just a continuation, don’t be naively happy.
Currently, after the 99K level was breached and then reclaimed, it can be considered an extreme action of a bull market pullback. If it cannot hold up later, then the bears should start celebrating. However, to be honest, it's not about to turn bearish immediately.
The key still depends on how US stocks open tonight; recalling that last weekend's wave of geopolitical panic resulted in Wall Street directly reversing and exploding the shorts on Monday. This week might follow the same pattern: first hitting the shorts hard, then trapping the longs at high positions.
On the technical side, the lower boundary on the 4-hour chart is at 101.2K, and it was just attempting to pull back. I won't make predictions; I'll just watch the action. If it stabilizes above 102K later, then congratulations, it's a false breakout and a shakeout move, and the range remains valid—go long when you should.
But if it can't get back, staying long-term near the lower boundary of the range and oscillating back and forth would mean directly arranging for a bearish position. The 4-hour channel is still flat; I personally lean towards a sideways trend, and if a bearish move is to be activated, it has to be stretched over time.
Master looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 103000
First resistance level: 101600
Support level reference:
Second support level: 100300
First support level: 99300
Currently, a long bullish candle has appeared; if it can continuously raise the lows in the 100.3–101.6K range in the short term, it is likely to maintain a short-term upward trend.
Before reaching 105K, resistance below needs to be gradually established. Focus on whether the support below is solid, if the lows are continuously rising, and then consider the possibility of a breakout above. Although it has reclaimed 100K, it is still in a downtrend, and the resistance zone above should be appropriately taken for profits.
If it can hold the 100K-100.3K range, the short-term rebound expectation can continue. It has now returned above 100K, and short-term rebounds can still be arranged, but note that the overall price is still in a downtrend.
Since it has returned above 100K, short-term strategies can be implemented for quick entries and exits. If during the pullback it does not drop below 100K, especially if it stabilizes around 99.8K–100K, the rebound view can be maintained.
6.23 Master’s wave strategy:
Long entry reference: 99300-100300 range, accumulating long positions in batches. Target: 101600-103000
Short entry reference: 102400-103000 range, accumulating short positions in batches. Target: 101600-100300
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you have to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after checking a few market updates. This market is filled with performers; today they show off long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they 'catch tops and bottoms every time,' but in reality, it's all hindsight. A blogger worth paying attention to has trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than only appearing when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
