1, On Saturday, a 5.2 magnitude earthquake occurred in northern Iran, which was detected by international agencies and is considered by the outside world to be a 'suspected nuclear test.' This may be one of the main reasons for the U.S. taking urgent action.
2, Secondly, Israel stated this week that it demands the U.S. to take action before Friday, otherwise Israel will strike on its own. However, in reality, Israel does not have such deep strike capabilities, which is no different from putting pressure on Trump to let the U.S. military take action. From this, we can clearly see that Israel is very important to the U.S. or to Trump, which is once again confirmed.
3, This time the U.S. used B-2 bombers carrying 6 GBU-57 bunker busters for precise strikes. As I mentioned earlier this week, the striking power of the GBU is acceptable, but an initial strike cannot ensure 100% destruction, and deploying 2 bunker busters at each of the three target locations does not guarantee complete destruction. According to reports from professional military bloggers, if the depth is sufficient, complete destruction might require 3-5 GBU-57s.
4, According to reports, several media outlets have reported that Iran possesses 25 to 30 facilities that are fully or primarily used for its nuclear program, among which 6 are classified as primary targets: the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, the Isfahan conversion plant, the Arak heavy water reactor, the Parchin weapons and ammunition production facilities, the Fordow uranium enrichment facility, and the Bushehr light water reactor.
5, Based on the above information, Trump's claim that he has completely destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities seems a bit 'childish.'
6, Trump's strikes against Iran exceeded most people's expectations, but upon reflection, it is also within reason. After the airstrikes, the U.S. is unlikely to fall into the geopolitical trap of the Middle East, and it can also provide an explanation to Israel. At this point, Iran only needs to acknowledge that the destruction occurred to resolve this crisis, but Iran has not cooperated with Trump.
7, From the current perspective, although Trump nominally claims victory, the situation may not proceed along his path, especially considering Iran's response. Iran launched the 'Khyber' medium-range ballistic missile at the first opportunity, which is currently the most powerful missile in Iran's arsenal, and during the morning counterattack, it clearly broke through Israel's defense network. At the very least, it has proven that Iran has sufficient counterattack capabilities.
8, As of now, the situation remains out of control. Of course, many people are concerned about whether Iran will attack the U.S. mainland, but this is not something to worry about for the time being; Iran currently does not have long-range strike capabilities, with the Middle East being its maximum range. This is also one of the reasons for Israel's concerns.
9, Currently, we need to focus on whether Iran will strike U.S. military bases and whether it will blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which is Iran's current trump card; of course, these are also double-edged swords. How to drive the situation forward is in Iran's hands, while from the perspective of the U.S. and Israel, the situation remains out of control.
10, For the U.S., once Iran strikes American military bases, the U.S. will inevitably retaliate, which would lead to a complete entanglement in the geopolitical trap of the Middle East. Subsequently, the intensity of the war between Russia and Ukraine will significantly escalate, and Russia will not miss this opportunity, increasing the pressure on Ukraine.
11, Currently, the situation is unclear. Over the weekend, the international market was closed, mainly focusing on gold, crude oil, and white sugar price trends after the market opened on Monday. If gold, crude oil, and white sugar all show significant increases, we need to be wary of the risk of escalating geopolitical warfare. If gold and white sugar do not rise while crude oil prices increase alone, it indicates that the temporary issue is not serious.