阿康来分析

Mindset is the most important
In trading, there will be losses. Losses are not a big deal; as long as you summarize and learn from the losses, you will emerge from them and achieve a higher understanding. This is often referred to as the idea that sometimes a loss can also be a gain. However, most of us overlook this concept and often cannot extricate ourselves from the pain of loss. We should learn to uplift our spirits in times of loss, not only summarizing our experiences and lessons, which will lead us to a higher dimension of trading.
Trading can only lead to insights after experiencing failure repeatedly. Do not expect to achieve success in a very short time. First, prepare yourself for long-term survival in the market, and then think about how to make a profit. Only by surviving can there be hope for stable profits.
Be humble in victory, and do not complain in defeat.
Only those who do practical work deserve respect.

The customer's word of mouth is the best advertisement! #BTC

8.5 Tuesday Evening Thoughts
From the daily chart perspective, the daily line currently presents a lower shadow limit up pattern, which also shows that the bulls are in control. Although the bears appear fierce, the trend is still upward; looking at the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening wider, indicating that market volatility is increasing, and the competition between bulls and bears has entered a heated phase. After a downward break of the lower band in the afternoon, there was an effective rebound and rise, breaking through the middle band and stabilizing. This trend reflects that the price has effective support at the lower band, and it is expected that a short-term accumulation phase is needed before breaking through. Combined with the evening US stock market correlation, the bulls are likely to initiate a new upward attack.
Buy Bitcoin at 114000-113800, target around 115800; buy Ethereum at 3640-3620, target around 3760. #BTC

Trump will 'open mic' tonight at 8 PM, economy, tariffs... the cryptocurrency market needs to pay attention! #BTC

核心交易理念：压力做空，支撑做多，只在系统内做高盈亏比博弈。

市场不可预测，随时可能“爆拉暴跌”，故唯一能做的是做好风控：

做单之前，考虑清楚止损、止盈，以损定仓。

先算清风险，再谈盈利#加密市场反弹

URPD data shows that as of today, 351,000 BTC have changed hands in the range of $112,000 to $114,000, an increase of 80,000 from August 3, some of which came from selling by trapped positions above. However, there are still 1.1 million BTC accumulated in area A, with $116,000 to $117,000 being a key resistance.

Before breaking through, BTC may pull back to $112,000; the ideal situation is to consolidate in the range of $112,000 to $116,000, absorbing chips and building consensus, in order to gather strength for the next breakout. #BTC

Interest rate cuts are likely to begin in September, with a current probability of 91%.

This is consistent with Goldman Sachs' prediction of three rate cuts of 25 basis points starting that month.

Increased liquidity will benefit risk assets, especially ETH; historically, risk assets thrive under such conditions.

Long-term outlook: bullish for the fourth quarter.#BTC

8.5 Tuesday Afternoon Analysis and Suggestions
Looking back, the morning's market situation was characterized by a downward trend, moving from the high point of 115300 down to around 114200, and currently the price is hovering around 114200.
Looking at the chart, the major asset's movement shows a W-shaped fluctuation, with several attempts to break through the key resistance level of 116000 but falling back down each time; the pressure above is quite significant, and it has not broken through yet, indicating that the downward force is relatively strong. Furthermore, looking at the four-hour chart, the major asset and the secondary asset have similar trends, both having broken below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Although there appears to be an upward channel, several attempts to rise have not stabilised successfully, and the pressure above remains high. It may decline next, or it might make a brief attempt to rise before dropping again. The short-term strategy remains the same: wait for a slight rebound before considering short positions.
Suggestions
For the major asset, consider shorting around 114500-115000, and look for support around 113500-113000.
For the minor asset, consider shorting around 3670-3700, and look for support around 3630-3600. #BTC走势分析

Risk preference declines in the later stages of a bull market, indicator peaks decrease, and holders are under pressure to sell.

Investors take profits, and the cost premium for rising prices narrows.

Combined with the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, it is anticipated that there will be two more rebounds, after which selling pressure will exceed demand, and the market will enter an adjustment #加密市场反弹

8.5日早间思路

根据当前盘面来看，四小时级别显示行情逐步向布林带上轨靠拢，虽然途中空头给予一定的回撤，但回撤力度微乎其微，并未影响到整体上行态势，KDJ指标三线向上拐头并有逐渐粘合，大有形成金叉的态势，MACD指标双线也是呈现出向上延伸状态，那么整体趋势仍然是在多头的掌控当中，从一小时级别来看，行情经历三连阳反弹后上方有所承压，价格也有所回落，但整体行情始终保持在上行通道当中，即使当前会给到一定的回撤，其力度也不会太大，所以早间操作上我们以回撤后低多的思路进行。

操作建议
大饼114500附近可多 目标看116500附近
姨太3680附近可多 目标看3780附近#加密市场反弹

Evening Strategy for April 8:
The white pancake is in a typical range-bound oscillation pattern, and the technical indicators have not provided a clear directional signal. The technical analysis shows that the price is above the short-term moving average but below the long-term moving average, with the moving average system tangled, momentum weakening, and trading volume extremely reduced, further confirming the market's wait-and-see attitude.
However, the upward momentum has already been completed, and one can short from the high position.
Trading Suggestions:
Short from 115000-114500, target around 113200-112200
Second pancake: Short from 3580-3560, target around 3450-3350 #加密市场反弹

8.4 Monday Big Cake Afternoon Analysis
From the current market perspective, the Big Cake shows characteristics of a continuous rebound, and the momentum is continuously being released. On the daily chart, after reaching a temporary bottom, it has begun a steady recovery, indicating that the selling pressure has entered an exhaustion cycle, providing a structural foundation for the continuation of the rebound trend. On the 4-hour cycle, the price has broken through the upper Bollinger Band resistance, and the middle band area has formed a strong support pattern. Subsequent strategies can rely on this key support level for positioning, with the upward space expected to gradually open up. The Auntie trend shows a high degree of correlation with the Big Cake, synchronously releasing rebound momentum after confirming the bottom, and the technical structure also has the conditions for continued upward movement. For the lunchtime operation, we will mainly focus on the retreat of the Big Cake.
Monday Lunchtime Strategy: Big Cake 113800-11400 retreat, target around 115500.
Auntie 3510-3530 retreat, target around 3610.#加密市场反弹

Morning advice for Monday, August 4: Focus on short positions for Bitcoin
Bitcoin has shown a sluggish trend in the past couple of days, although it touched a bottom near 1120 and rebounded. However, during the rebound, the bulls failed to significantly increase their volume, so this rebound can be seen as a technical adjustment after previous overselling. From the hourly chart perspective, Bitcoin faces divergence risk.
On the daily level, after continuous declines, today sees a rebound, closing with a long bullish candle, indicating a short-term strengthening of bullish momentum.
On the 4-hour level, the price has broken below the short-term consolidation range, maintaining a downward trend under pressure from short-term moving averages, but minor stabilization signs are appearing in smaller time frames. Attention can be given to short-term rebound recovery opportunities. In terms of operations, it is recommended to focus on a consolidating strategy, mainly targeting high short positions on rebounds.
Personal advice is for reference only:
Bitcoin is recommended to short near 114500-115000, with the initial target at 113000.
Ethereum is recommended to short near 3540-3560, with the initial target at 3450. #加密市场回调

If Bitcoin breaks through $114,000,

the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $603 million,

on the contrary, if Bitcoin falls below $112,000,

the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will only be $68.916 million.

​
​If you were the dealer, what would you choose?#BTC

"Rising looks at profits, falling looks at losses" is a method to observe market sentiment.

In the past month, BTC has had 3 significant loss sell-off events, with losses of $149 million, $116 million, and $88 million, respectively, and losses did not increase when prices were lower.

This indicates that under minor bearish conditions, investors are less willing to sell at a loss, and risk-averse sentiment is gradually becoming desensitized. Therefore, BTC is unlikely to experience a sudden significant drop unless a larger bearish event triggers panic. #加密市场回调

8.1 Friday Evening Analysis and Suggestions
From the 15-minute K-line combined with the BOLL indicator, the price is operating within the Bollinger Band channel, currently oscillating between the middle and lower bands. Intraday, it tested a low of 114055.6, retreated after a high, supported in the short term by the Bollinger middle band but clearly constrained by the upper band. On the daily dimension, it has recently oscillated around the 118000 mark, which is part of a repair cycle after a deep pullback. The 4-hour level shows a narrow consolidation after a high-level retreat, with the MACD indicator's fast and slow lines continuously converging, implying a signal of strengthening but weak momentum. This evening, attention can continue to focus on shorting at high levels.
Suggestions
Bitcoin 115500-115800 range short, look at 114000-113500 range
Ethereum 3660-3680 range short, look at 3590-3560 range #BTC走势分析

Short-term pullback for ETH, does not hinder long-term bullish outlook, focus on 3510#美国加征关税

Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls May Indicate the Direction of Powell's Policy Endgame! The Unemployment Rate is the Core Key

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell clearly stated on Wednesday that the currently resilient U.S. labor market has become the primary determinant of monetary policy. This signal implies that if July's employment data is strong, it could completely extinguish expectations for a rate cut in September and reduce the likelihood of further easing this year.

At the press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Powell insisted that the next actions of this rate-setting body will depend on the overall performance of economic data. He acknowledged the reasons supporting easing, such as slowing consumer spending, GDP growth of only 1.2% in the first half of the year, and the downward risks to the job market due to weakening labor supply and demand.

However, he also explained the reasons for the Fed's maintenance of a moderately tightening stance: "The core data that needs the most attention right now is the unemployment rate," Powell told reporters.

This firm stance is particularly noteworthy, as governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voted in favor of easing — marking the first time in over 30 years that two dissenters appeared at a Federal Reserve policy meeting.

However, Powell has sound reasoning. Due to tightened immigration controls limiting the influx of foreign labor, the job market overall remains balanced. Other indicators, such as resignation rates and job vacancy rates, are also performing robustly. Moreover, a 4.1% unemployment rate is difficult to justify as a reason for a rate cut.

The initial market reaction following Wednesday's FOMC decision — a drop in U.S. stocks, a rise in bond yields, a surge in the dollar, and a further cooling of rate cut expectations in the money market — indicates that investors accurately received Powell's signal.

The interest rate futures market now shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is essentially a coin flip, marking the least dovish pricing in over a year. The market has fully absorbed the expectation of only one rate cut this year. #BTC

Warm porridge in the morning, bright lights at night, a mind without ripples, steady steps, is a stable warmth. #BTC

Morning Kongdan strategy still verified successfully, secured big cake 1200 points, aunt 50 points in the Kong! #美国初请失业金人数