阿康来分析

Mindset is the most important
In trading, there will be losses. Losses are not a big deal; as long as you summarize and learn from the losses, you will emerge from them and achieve a higher understanding. This is often referred to as the idea that sometimes a loss can also be a gain. However, most of us overlook this concept and often cannot extricate ourselves from the pain of loss. We should learn to uplift our spirits in times of loss, not only summarizing our experiences and lessons, which will lead us to a higher dimension of trading.
Trading can only lead to insights after experiencing failure repeatedly. Do not expect to achieve success in a very short time. First, prepare yourself for long-term survival in the market, and then think about how to make a profit. Only by surviving can there be hope for stable profits.
Be humble in victory, and do not complain in defeat.
Only those who do practical work deserve respect.

The customer's word of mouth is the best advertisement! #BTC

Friday Evening Market Analysis on June 20:
Bitcoin continued its range oscillation in the morning, falling to around 104,100, then in the afternoon it increased to break through to around 106,400, and is currently oscillating around 105,800.
Ethereum fell to around 2,530 in the morning and then to around 2,503, before increasing in the afternoon to break through to around 2,570, and then fell back to oscillate around 2,545.
In the afternoon, influenced by on-chain capital inflow, Bitcoin increased to around 106,500 but faced resistance. From the current daily candlestick, Bitcoin's volume has decreased and is facing resistance near the middle track, with attention on 106,500 and 109,700 above. Below, attention is on the vicinity of 102,000. From the four-hour structure, Bitcoin's volume increased near the upper track but is under pressure, with support at around 104,800 and 103,800. From the one-hour structure, Bitcoin broke through above the upper track, with support at around 104,600 and 103,500. In the short term, the volume has decreased, with support at around 105,200.
Evening Personal Opinion:
Bitcoin is expected to retrace to around 105,500-105,000, looking towards around 107,000-107,500.
Ethereum is expected to retrace to around 2,535-2,545, looking towards around 2,585-2,600.

We have to think about how to avoid losses caused by data or how to capture the profits within it. In fact, whether it is technical trading or news analysis, both have their own reasoning, but the premise is to believe in your own judgment and not let it be manipulated.
Three major reasons for significant losses in the cryptocurrency market:
Emotional trading by chasing highs and selling lows, over-leveraging and unable to withstand pullbacks, and missing opportunities due to lack of funds. In the current market, remember to 'take profits when they are there, secure your gains,' sell in batches during big rises, buy in batches during big dips, preserve your capital, seek stable victories, and only then can you survive in the cryptocurrency market and seize future opportunities. #BTC

Weekly trend analysis, recording BTC's capital flow for one month.

1) BTC weekly candlestick chart, multiple upper shadows and two doji candlesticks;
2) Main capital flow in the last 30 days, net outflow of 2.28 billion in spot, net outflow of 4.69 billion in contracts.
3) ETF institutional capital flow, recent net inflow is decreasing, with a net outflow as high as 616 million USD on May 30;
4) Order book buy and sell orders, on May 22, the sell order amount showed a massive volume and reached a new high.

Whether to exit, remains to be verified. #BTC

Morning Thoughts on June 20

From the current market perspective, the four-hour level price comparison has not broken through the key oscillation range. The candlestick bodies have significant upper shadows, indicating that short-term selling pressure continues to exist. The middle line of the Bollinger Bands continues to move downwards, confirming that the overall trend is still dominated by the bears. The daily level bullish-bearish dividing line is at 103750; if confirmed to break below, the target can continue to look downwards.

Trading Recommendations:
Short on Bitcoin near 105500, target 103500
Short on Ether near 2550, target 2450#BTC

Intraday fluctuations of less than a thousand points, coupled with the US stock market being closed tonight, the overall market remains in sideways oscillation. No matter what positions you hold, the most important thing at this moment is to understand the importance of securing profits.

In the cryptocurrency world, don't get complacent after a single profit; sustained profits are what matter. After each profit, review to see if the strategy is effective or if it was just luck, and build a strategy that suits you.
Empty position strategy usage:
When uncertain about the market, hold an empty position; safety of funds comes first. Entering the cryptocurrency world is about steady asset appreciation, not gambling-style investments; trading is a matter of success rates and profit-loss ratios.
Key points for investing in new coins:
In the early stages of new coins, market optimism leads to an influx of funds that drives up prices, but they may lack fundamental support. When market sentiment changes, fund withdrawals can easily lead to a price crash, so investment must be assessed cautiously.
Consensus and wealth in the cryptocurrency world:
Digital currencies develop through consensus mechanisms, where participants earn wealth through belief and effort, showcasing the power of consensus and the potential for wealth creation in the cryptocurrency realm.
If someone feels lost due to market fluctuations and doesn't know how to deal with being stuck, or feels misled during their operations, remember to learn more.

More than half a month of successful inventory turnover, the journey of inventory turnover continues! #BTC

Morning Dandan thought successfully verified, Auntie up nearly 40 points #BTC

Evening Analysis on June 19
Affected by today's Meigu Persimmon, the trading atmosphere in the persimmon market is slightly dull, with overall movement being limited. From a technical perspective, after a three consecutive bullish candle pattern in the early morning, the price of the main market could not sustain its upward momentum and instead entered a downward consolidation channel, currently maintaining a narrow horizontal arrangement. The current momentum in the persimmon market is clearly insufficient, and the downward pressure is gradually becoming dominant, overall presenting a downward pattern.
The second market trend is similar to the main market, also experiencing upward pressure after a brief surge, falling back into a range of fluctuations. Combining the hourly-level candlestick patterns and market sentiment:
Main Market: Looking at the range around 105100-105500, with attention to around 103500.
Second Market: Can be observed around 2540-2550, targeting around 2480.

The Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged as expected, and the dot plot showed that most officials expected the next rate cut to be in September. Affected by this, the three major U.S. stock indexes showed a volatile trend of first decline and then rise. Goldman Sachs, Microsoft, Nvidia and other heavyweight stocks have fully recovered their losses this year and are steadily attacking historical highs.

Recently, two hot spots have emerged in the U.S. technology sector: brain-computer interface and brain regeneration technology concepts surged 5 times in two trading days, and yesterday they suddenly fell back by more than 18%. Short-term violent fluctuations will test A-share related targets, and the progress of technology implementation of leading companies such as Sanbo Brain Science has attracted much attention. In sharp contrast, the stablecoin leader Circle has made a breakthrough in the U.S. stablecoin bill, and its single-day surge was 34%. If the bill is officially implemented, it will build a more standardized regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market and promote the industry's compliance process.

The differentiation trend of these two types of assets is being transmitted to the A-share market. On the one hand, brain-computer interface technology has entered the clinical implementation stage in China, and many listed companies have disclosed the progress of cooperation with scientific research institutions; on the other hand, the Hong Kong market is accelerating the layout of stablecoins, and Internet giants such as Alibaba have taken the lead in announcing issuance plans, which is expected to drive the application and expansion of blockchain technology in cross-border payments, supply chain finance and other scenarios.

It is worth noting that market funds are showing obvious structural differentiation: leading companies with real technical reserves continue to be favored by institutions, while Hengbao shares and other previous pure concept speculation targets are facing valuation correction pressure after the realization of good news. As the Fed's policy cycle enters the observation period, the performance realization ability of the technology sector will become the focus of the market in the next stage. Investors need to maintain rational judgment during the interweaving period of policy dividends and technology implementation. #BTC

The information released by the Federal Reserve's latest meeting resolution.
1. Maintain interest rates unchanged, no rate cut for now.
2. It is expected that there may be two more rate cuts within the year, cutting by 50 basis points.
Trump reacted angrily upon hearing that there would be no rate cuts, saying he should be the one at the Federal Reserve.
In my personal opinion, the Federal Reserve has already entered a rate-cutting cycle since last year, and the purpose of the cuts at that time was preventive.
This year's pace has slowed down slightly, as the fundamental situation is stable. Previously, it was noted that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts typically fall into three categories.
1. Preventive rate cuts.
2. A sharp decline in the U.S. stock market.
3. Real economic issues.
At present, none of these three conditions are met, so it is normal for the pace to slow down. The current expectation is that there may still be two more rate cuts, but in reality, it has been prolonged, and now the expectation is delayed to September.

6.19 Thursday Morning Thought Analysis
From a technical perspective, the daily K-line maintains its range positioning function, with the price continuing to oscillate below the middle track. The current trend shows a doji candlestick pattern, indicating a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces. On the four-hour chart, after a brief upward movement in the early hours of yesterday, the price has entered a phase of pullback and oscillation in the afternoon, with significant price fluctuations. Combining indicator analysis, the KDJ
has returned to the upward channel after a rebound, showing a recovery of short-term bullish momentum; however, the MACD indicator is still in a downward divergence state, and the bearish volume is not significantly reduced, suggesting a small rebound in the short term.
Bitcoin can be bought near 104500, targeting 105500. Ethereum can be bought near 2510, targeting 2550. #BTC

Powell's Tune Tonight: Will He Inject Liquidity or Strangle Crypto? Trump Publicly Calls for a 100 Basis Point Rate Cut, Not 200 Basis Points
1. Core Logic of the Interest Rate Decision
> Dovish Signal: If Powell mentions "economic risks rising" or "data-dependent decisions", it may hint at a rate cut path, driving BTC to challenge the 106,000 resistance level (a key technical point).
> Hawkish Risk: If he emphasizes "inflation stickiness exceeding expectations" or "geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices", a stronger dollar may trigger a sell-off in the crypto market, and BTC might fall back to the 103,000 support level.
(Supplement on the impact of the Middle East situation on inflation: If the Israel-Iran conflict escalates, it could undermine the BTC 104,800–105,400 support zone)

2. Correction of Trump's Remarks and Background Supplement
> Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell as Mr. Too Late, demanding the Federal Reserve cut rates by 100 basis points (not 200 basis points), claiming that the current interest rate policy has caused the nation to lose enormous wealth and has raised government borrowing costs.
> (Deeper Motivation: Trump’s trade policy needs a low-interest-rate environment for support, and a rate cut could alleviate debt pressure and stimulate the stock market)

3. Current Market Situation and Data Support
- New Key Indicators:
- Bitcoin currently at 105,461 (up 12.71% year-to-date), Ethereum at 2,535 (down 24.03% year-to-date);
- Fear and Greed Index at 48 (neutral), BTC long-short ratio at 1.12 (slightly favoring bulls);
- If the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, BTC is expected to break through 106,000 and start a new upward trend.

4. Inaccurate Investment Guidance
- Objective Suggestions:
> Short-term operations need to be cautious of a spike in volatility: Historical volatility often exceeds 30% within 1 hour after the Federal Reserve's decision, consider positioning in volatility derivatives (such as BTC options) or stablecoin arbitrage.
> Mid to long-term allocation should focus on compliant mainlines: The passage of the U.S. GENIUS stablecoin bill is favorable for institutional funds flowing into ETH spot ETFs (net inflow of 110 million in one week).#美联储FOMC会议

Although the current short-term trend is in a bearish structure, the long-term support is still intact. Essentially, it remains range-bound, with limited ups and downs. #BTC

The idea is always online, just waiting for the flowers to bloom! #BTC

6.18 Evening Thought Analysis
The 4-hour price is in the overall upward channel. The recent oscillating upward trend is obvious. The current market momentum is biased towards bulls, but there is still a possibility of a certain oscillation correction
The secondary indicator MACD: DIF line crosses the DEA line, and the red column gradually increases, indicating that the trend is biased towards bulls, and the price has further upward momentum. The key depends on the heavy attack of FOMC at 2 a.m.
Is it a blessing or a curse? Is the turning point coming or the oscillation continues? Historical data shows that the fluctuation in the 2 hours after FOMC accounts for 70% of the full-day amplitude
02:00 Fed interest rate decision one-point array chart is revealed 02:30 Fed Chairman Powell press conference
Main market expectations: The Fed is likely to maintain the current interest rate unchanged. If the expectations are fulfilled, Bitcoin and US stocks may experience a deep correction, laying the groundwork for the September interest rate cut; once the "black swan" of an unexpected interest rate cut occurs, the BTC price may strongly break through the $120,000 mark!
Operational suggestions: long orders near 104000-104500 for big cakes, and the target is first seen near 106500.
Ethereum operation suggestion: long orders near 2490-2510, target around 2580. #BTC

FOMC Heavy Impact at 2 AM
Is it a blessing or a curse? Is a turning point approaching or is the turbulence continuing? Historical data shows that volatility in the 2 hours after FOMC accounts for 70% of the day's range.
02:00 Fed interest rate decision and dot plot revealed; 02:30 Fed Chair Powell's press conference.
Market consensus: The Fed is highly likely to maintain the current interest rate. If this expectation is met, Bitcoin and U.S. stocks may experience a deep correction, paving the way for a rate cut in September; if an unexpected rate cut occurs, this 'black swan' could see BTC prices strongly break through the $120,000 mark!
Special Attention
Powell's speech is expected to trigger severe market volatility,
Three sensitive areas during Powell's speech:
1. Rate cut path 2. Political pressure 3. Tariff classification
Friends, be sure to fasten your risk control seatbelts and respond cautiously! Prepare your strategies for this 'super storm' in the financial markets!#BTC

New members have successfully turned over the old! One should have the simplest life and the most distant dreams. Even if tomorrow is cold and frozen, with high mountains and distant waters, the road is long and the horse is busy #BTC