📉 $BTC（2025-06-22 08:30）｜Long-Short Trend Index: 41 / 100（Weak Consolidation）

BTC maintains a weak consolidation pattern, with short-term rebounds facing resistance and a further decline. Both MACD and RSI indicate that bearish pressure has not yet been fully released. Overall, it is in a weak consolidation phase, with limited technical rebounds. It is recommended to remain cautious or try short longs with light positions in the short term. Support level at 101,200, key resistance levels at 103,800 / 105,200.

🔹 Multi-Cycle K-Line Trend Judgment:

15-minute chart: After a quick rebound, the price peaks and falls back; MACD's bullish crossover momentum weakens, RSI rises to 54.2, and short-term oscillation is weak;

1-hour chart: Continues to decline and consolidates at low levels, MACD is still in a bearish crossover, RSI is only 42.7, short-term under pressure;

4-hour chart: Short-term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, MACD histogram turns green, RSI drops to 38.1, adjustment trend is not over;

Daily chart: Breaks below MA25, MACD bearish crossover increases volume decline, RSI falls to 42.3, showing obvious weakness;

Weekly chart: MACD top divergence continues, RSI falls from high to 59.2, although the long-term has not turned bearish, one must be alert to a deepening mid-term correction.

📈 Technical Indicator Analysis:

MACD: 15m bullish crossover weakens, 1H and 4H are still in bearish crossover status, daily bearish momentum strengthens, rebound may be hard to sustain;

RSI: 15m rises to the neutral upper edge, other cycles are in weak zones, momentum recovery is limited;

Moving Average System: Current price is between MA25 and MA99, clear short-term pressure, must break through 103,800 to confirm the stop of decline;

Trading Volume: Rebound accompanied by moderate volume increase, but no sustained buying has been observed, and capital confidence remains insufficient.

🌐 Summary of Macro News (Latest):

1. Federal Reserve's Kashkari: Does not rule out maintaining high interest rates before the end of the year (CNBC, June 21);

2. Coinbase and CME reportedly plan to collaborate on launching an 'institutional-grade BTC futures package', market reaction is positive (The Block, June 21);

3. Ethereum developers push forward the Pectra upgrade draft, aiming for a Q1 2025 launch, benefiting the overall L2 ecosystem (CoinDesk, June 21);

4. In the last 24 hours, the overall trading volume of the crypto market has dropped by 12.6%, and the pace of hot rotation has slowed.