📉 $BTC（2025-06-21 07:45）｜Long/Short Trend Index: 43 / 100 (Weak Adjustment)

BTC continues to fluctuate at low levels after breaking through the key support of 104,000. The bearish trend has not yet been reversed, and technical indicators do not show significant signs of stabilization; focus on defense in the short term, resistance at 104,600~105,200, support at 102,300.

🔹 Multi-Period K-Line Trend Judgment:

15-Minute Chart: After a quick rebound, it peaked and then fell back, MACD's low-level golden cross momentum weakened, RSI rose to 39.4, short-term fluctuations but weak.

1-Hour Chart: Continued decline followed by low-level consolidation, MACD is still in a dead cross, RSI only 36.0, short-term still under pressure.

4-Hour Chart: Short-term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, MACD histogram has turned green, RSI has dipped to 38.8, adjustment situation has not stopped.

Daily Chart: Dropped below MA25, MACD dead cross followed by increased volume decline, RSI fell to 43.8, weak characteristics are evident.

Weekly Chart: MACD top divergence persists, RSI fell back from high to 60.2, although the long-term has not turned bearish, caution is needed for deepening mid-term corrections.

📈 Technical Indicator Analysis:

MACD: Continuous dead cross across multiple periods, 4H and 1H momentum weakened, 15m rebound lacks volume, daily green histogram increases, overall bearish dominance.

RSI: Most periods are in the weak range of 30~45, market momentum is sluggish, and recovery of the trend will take time.

Moving Average System: Price is running below MA25 and MA99, short-term trend remains in a bearish arrangement, with 104,600 as the first resistance.

Trading Volume: Increased volume decline followed by decreased volume consolidation, rebound difficult to sustain, need to be wary of bearish extension risks.

🌐 Macroeconomic News Summary (Latest):

1. US SEC Chair says "still need to assess the impact of ETFs on market stability," delaying further progress on crypto ETFs (CNBC, June 20);

2. South Korea announces a draft to strengthen regulation of virtual asset trading, plans to establish a "Crypto Market Special Investigation Team" (Yonhap News, June 20);

3. Tether issued an additional 1.5 billion USDT, part of which is used for exchange liquidity supply (The Block, June 20);

4. Active selling of BTC on the entire network accounted for over 56% within 24 hours, with continued net outflow of on-chain funds (CryptoQuant, June 20).