SOL breaks through key support! RSI touches the 21 oversold zone, is the opportunity for bulls to strike back arriving?
Technical Analysis:
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Bands: Current price 133.73 is near the lower band (133.61), Bollinger Band position value 1.04 (>1), indicating that the price is severely deviated from the middle band, showing a need for a rebound from overselling.
• MA200: Price is 9% below MA200 (146.97), with a large deviation, the long-term bearish trend remains unchanged but there is room for short-term correction.
• Holding Cost: 8.7% below the average holding cost (146.55), most holders are in a loss situation, selling pressure or marginal weakening.
2. Market Strength:
• Trading Volume: 24-hour volume increased by 44%, price decreased by 4.55%, indicating a volume increase with a price drop, but RSI 21 enters the extreme oversold zone, and the bearish strength is weakening in the short term.
• Order Book: Buy/sell ratio 1.61 (buyers are dominant), but there is significant selling pressure near the level (-820,000 difference), key resistance at 134.12-134.68 (accumulated 780,000 USDT sell orders).
• Liquidity: Dense buy orders gather at 130-133.4 (valued at 4.28 million USDT), forming a strong support zone; there are tiered sell order resistances at 134.12-142.
3. Key Levels:
• Support: 133.4 (buyer liquidity zone) → 130.0 (3.3M USDT buy order fortress).
• Resistance: 134.68 (accumulated sell orders) → 137.93 → 142.0.
Market Cycle Analysis:
Currently in a mid-bear market downward channel, but severely oversold in the short term, indicating a technical rebound repair demand.
Trading Strategy:
Direction: Short-term bullish rebound (1-3 days)
• Entry: 133.4 (relying on buyer liquidity support)
• Stop Loss: 129.5 (if falling below 130.0 strong support, the trend weakens)
• Target: 137.93 (after breaking 134.68, a short covering area)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 1.06 (according to the formula (137.93-133.4)/(133.4-129.5)=4.53/4.9≈1.06)
Risk Warning:
• If the support at 130.0 is lost, it may trigger a bull liquidation, opening up downside space to 120.0.
• Position ≤2%, avoid operations during low liquidity periods in Asia.
> Summary: SOL extreme overselling combined with buyer liquidity support, short-term bet on rebound with risk-reward ratio >1, but strict stop-loss must be observed!
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