Current BTC price 100,536.05 USDT, 24-hour drop 2.91%, RSI 26.95 oversold, trading volume increased by 4.47 times, significant buying pressure (buy-sell ratio 3.06x), high short-term rebound opportunity. Suggest buying on dips, target 100,800, stop-loss 100,000. Risk: If it falls below key support or encounters macro-negative news, it may continue to drop.
Technical analysis
1. Price status:
• Bollinger Bands position: Current price is below the lower band (100,969.51), deviation -16.78%, indicating severe overselling, with great potential for short-term rebound.
• MA200 position: Price is below MA200 (104,824.20), deviation -4.09%, reflecting that the medium-term downtrend has not changed.
• Holding cost position: Price is below holding cost (104,525.33), deviation -3.82%, indicating that most holders are at a loss, selling pressure may weaken.
2. Market strength and weakness:
• Volume analysis: 24-hour trading volume is 4.47 times, high trading volume combined with price decline suggests major selling but nearing the end; recent 15-minute net inflow of 171 BTC, indicating initial capital inflow.
• Position change: 1-hour positions increased by 2.13%, but long-short ratio fell to 1.5027 (fewer long positions), capital games intensified, rebound needs confirmation of volume.
• Smart money long-short ratio: Funding rate 0.00005763 (positive), smart capital is slightly biased towards long, but the trend is weakening.
• Market news: No major new news, price has digested recent decline.
3. Key support and resistance levels:
• Support level: 100,300.00 (Buyer liquidity concentration 12.26M USDT), around 100,500 (liquidity 352K USDT), technical overselling reinforces support.
• Resistance levels: 100,798.18 (Seller liquidity 746K USDT), 101,362.89 (Technical resistance).
• Buy-sell pressure: Nearby buy orders 31.60M USDT far exceed sell orders 16.23M USDT (ratio 3.06x), long-short imbalance supports a rebound; liquidity gap at 100,500-100,700, easily triggered price fluctuations.
Market cycle analysis
The current market is in the mid-bottom area of a bear market: price continues to decline (7-day drop 4.77%), RSI oversold, but high buying pressure suggests accumulation phase; if rebound is confirmed, it can transition to oscillation repair.
Trading strategy
• Entry point: 100,500 (aggressive, near support liquidity area).
• Stop-loss point: 100,000 (falling below this psychological level will worsen the trend).
• Target level: 100,800 (conservative, resistance liquidity area).
• Risk-reward ratio: 0.6 (based on Long direction, entry=100500, stop-loss=100000, take-profit=100800).
Risk warning
Market risk factors: If the price falls below the 100,000 support (order book shows weak liquidity), or encounters macro events (such as regulatory upgrades), it may continue to drop 2%+. Conditions for strategy failure: Loss of key support at 100,300 requires stop-loss; avoid operations during periods of insufficient liquidity (such as low trading volume). Operating cautions: Single position risk ≤ total capital 2%; prioritize trading during high liquidity periods.
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