Is Bitcoin's $BTC four-year cycle failing?
As we all know, Bitcoin has always exhibited a cyclical pattern of "four years of bull and bear markets" since its inception (see the upper part of Figure 1), but this time it seems to be changing.
The lower part of Figure 1 shows the sentiment indicator NUPL, reflecting the current price compared to the on-chain holding cost.
Value < 0 = Panic (Green)
Value > 0.75 = Greed (Purple)
Considering "cycle + sentiment", there are a few points worth noting:
🏷️If the old cycle is still valid, we should be approaching the top now, with the next emotional low expected in the second half of 2026;
However, this round of trends has shown abnormalities:
🏷️In the past, each bull market roughly experienced 700–900 days from low to high, but this time it has exceeded 900 days since December 2023;
🏷️More importantly, the sentiment indicator has never touched the greed area (0.75), and this year's highest has not exceeded 0.65, remaining in a moderate range.
Is this round going to break Bitcoin's "four-year law"?
