The voices of stablecoins in the market have never been so lively.
This wave of stablecoin enthusiasm began with the U.S. Stablecoin GENIUS Act and has evolved from Hong Kong's stablecoin draft. Now, moving from policy regulation to practical implementation, major companies have begun to take the baton on this hot topic, once again sparking public discussion about stablecoins. The major players here are not limited to China's JD.com and Ant International; globally, JPMorgan, Google, Walmart, and Amazon are all eager to try, and stablecoins seem to have become a rare consensus track for institutions.
Just today, the U.S. Senate passed the Stablecoin GENIUS Act with 68 votes in favor and 30 against, successfully sending the bill to the House of Representatives for deliberation, leaving a historic mark in the legislative process of stablecoins. Which entities will end up dominating this so-called trillion-dollar payment business? What signal does the entry of major companies release?
01
What kind of business is stablecoin?
As previously mentioned, in the decades-long development of the crypto world, only two applications have truly broken through: Bitcoin and stablecoins. As of now, the total market capitalization of global stablecoin circulation has reached $251.7 billion, not only shining with over a hundredfold growth in both crypto and traditional financial markets but also genuinely achieving landing and application globally, allowing some citizens of third-world countries to access global financial infrastructure at lower costs.
Looking at its growth path, the emergence of stablecoins is inevitable. In addition to the buffering demands for volatility in the crypto market itself, it perfectly aligns with the evolutionary direction of currency, which pursues efficiency and convenience in payments and settlements while maintaining value stability. Digitization and anonymity enhance the efficiency of payment settlements, while anchoring mechanisms stabilize the value of stablecoins. However, even so, stablecoins, which are relatively distant from traditional currency markets, only truly broke into mainstream media and public discourse this year, primarily due to regulatory developments.
In May, the U.S. Senate passed the Stablecoin GENIUS Act procedural motion for the first time. This bill not only represents the world's most influential country formally considering the inclusion of stablecoins in legislation but also awakens a once-forgotten memory that private entities can issue currency. In other words, it officially recognizes the legitimacy of privately issued currency.
Before this, almost everyone believed that currency was the embodiment of national and official nature. Whether it was the successfully validated Bitcoin or the failed Libra, the market generally viewed the former as a store of value while maintaining a negative attitude towards the latter from the outset. To trace back history, the era of private currency issuance requires us to return to the 15th century during the European banknote period. At that time, banks were everywhere in Britain, even on rural roads. Banks were more akin to one small casino after another, oscillating between running away and being run away from. The introduction of the Peel Act in 1844 officially ended the right of private banks to issue currency, consolidating the right to mint money back to the Bank of England and establishing the embryonic form of central banks. Subsequently, this system was widely imitated and followed, leading to today, where the central bank system permeates global currency management and issuance, with fiat currencies being forcibly endowed with monopoly and legal tender status, becoming a key part of the global government's macro governance mechanism.
Subsequent regulations on stablecoins in Hong Kong are similarly aligned. However, compared to the U.S. and other countries, Hong Kong's currency issuance system is inherently more decentralized, and its openness toward stablecoins appears more inclusive. Issuing currency is essentially another manifestation of the right to mint money, and this business is clearly capable of shaking hearts. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has indicated that the stablecoin market size is expected to grow to $3.7 trillion by 2030, illustrating the vast potential of stablecoins.
Compared to other sectors, the scale effect of currency is very prominent, and the competitive advantage brought about by this scale effect is even more remarkable. Currently, the stablecoin market exhibits a high degree of concentration, with USDT alone occupying 62.13% of the market share. It's often said that USDT's issuing entity, Tether, has a net profit of $13 billion in 2024, with profits exceeding $1 billion in the first quarter of 2025, making its business profitability akin to a cash cow.
02
The rush to layout and the urgency of major global companies entering the market.
The relaxation of compliance and the stimulation of interests are working in tandem, prompting global institutions to seek to become issuers. From overseas reports in May, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and other major commercial banks are discussing joint issuance of stablecoins to respond to the growing competition in the crypto sector. Subsequently, companies like Uber, Apple, and X have expressed interest in stablecoins, while retail giants like Walmart and Amazon are also eager to jump in. Banks like Société Générale, Deutsche Bank, and Santander have also publicly indicated their consideration of launching stablecoin services. In a report released by Coinbase on the state of cryptocurrencies, interest in stablecoins among Fortune 500 executives has tripled compared to 2024. Surveys show that nearly 29% of the 100 surveyed Fortune 500 executives indicated their companies plan to or are interested in stablecoins, a significant increase from last year's 8%.
From a strategic perspective, different entities have varying considerations regarding stablecoins. For banks, launching stablecoin services is more defensive; stablecoins are more efficient in global settlements and can theoretically bypass traditional bank account systems entirely. If they do not keep up, they may face the risk of losing their position. For enterprises, the utility of stablecoins is the core consideration; their unique ability to reduce transaction costs and optimize cross-border payments can effectively enhance competitiveness, especially for retail cross-border companies that heavily rely on traditional bank settlements. Stablecoins can not only successfully fill the payment business gap but also significantly improve settlement efficiency. Furthermore, relying on their own influence, proprietary stablecoins can be implemented globally, providing strong protective barriers and robust profit drivers for business development.
The major companies in the domestic market are no exception. With the introduction of Hong Kong's stablecoin draft, the ambitions of major companies are becoming apparent. During the pilot phase of the Hong Kong stablecoin sandbox, JD.com, Yuan Coin, and Standard Chartered participated as formal participants. At that time, JD.com's entry caused quite a stir in the market. The reason lies in the fact that before stablecoins, JD.com had focused entirely on the application of industrial blockchain, with business segments concentrated on the ecological construction of Zhizhen Chain, and even the digital collectibles were only a flash in the pan. However, JD.com's strategy regarding stablecoins is extremely resolute; they not only carefully selected an experienced lead but also put substantial effort into obtaining licenses, becoming the first to secure the first, fourth, and ninth licenses from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), paving a compliant path for their business.
JD.com's intention to launch stablecoins is relatively clear. Apart from fulfilling its long-desired payment business, the core of building a global settlement network with stablecoins lies in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, adhering to the pragmatic philosophy of its founder. For JD.com's global supply chain, the integration of stablecoins can perfectly connect logistics, personnel, capital, and information flows, achieving internal self-circulation within the enterprise. Liu Qiangdong also responded, stating, 'JD.com hopes to apply for stablecoin licenses in all major currency countries globally and then use these licenses to facilitate currency exchanges between global enterprises, reducing cross-border payment costs by 90% and improving efficiency to within 10 seconds. Currently, remittances between enterprises average 2 to 4 days and are quite costly. After completing B-end payments, we will penetrate into C-end payments, hoping that one day everyone can use JD stablecoins for consumption worldwide.'
Apart from JD.com, Ant's entry is even more intriguing. In the blockchain field, Ant has a very broad layout, establishing a development pattern of 'internal-external separation, two paths.' Domestically, it emphasizes the application of blockchain technology in industrial supply chains, while also following trends to launch a digital collectibles platform. Overseas, it encompasses a richer array of offerings, including dedicated solution provider ZAN and Layer2 blockchain Jovay, as well as a platform specifically designed for RWA with two chains and one bridge. When recounting more shut down projects, Ant can be considered a seasoned player in the blockchain space.
On June 12, Ant International announced it would submit an application for a Hong Kong stablecoin issuer license as soon as the bill takes effect on August 1 and related channels open. On the same day, Ant Group's Vice President and President of Ant Digital's Blockchain Business, Bian Zhuoqun, stated at the SNEC Shanghai Photovoltaic Exhibition that Ant Digital has initiated the application for the Hong Kong stablecoin license and has already engaged in multiple rounds of communication with regulators. Ant Digital has designated Hong Kong as its global headquarters this year and has already completed a regulatory sandbox pilot in Hong Kong. Just two days prior, Deutsche Bank announced a partnership with Ant International, stating that both parties would explore cutting-edge areas such as tokenized deposits and stablecoin solutions, marking the prelude to Ant's stablecoin endeavors.
Ant International and Ant Digital's different business segments focus on global payment services, while Ant Digital emphasizes digital technology empowerment. In terms of significance, the former aligns closely with stablecoin operations, not only broadening the digital asset market but also expanding global payment influence. The latter emphasizes the vast market of tokenization, integrating stablecoins with RWA (Real World Asset) business in both directions. Although they seem to follow different paths, their combination unexpectedly points to a single direction: moving from domestic payment media toward global financial infrastructure, which may be its true intention.
By leveraging Alipay+, collaborating with global banks to promote the adoption of stablecoins, and deeply penetrating the tokenization market through Ant's stablecoin, further enhancing the efficiency and recognition of stablecoin usage, ultimately achieving a positive flywheel effect, the rhetoric of recreating Alipay overseas does not seem entirely unfounded. More importantly, in this process, Ant is likely to use the 'Hong Kong dollar or Chinese yuan' as the anchor point for its stablecoin, which, to a certain extent, represents a market version of the internationalization of the renminbi that bypasses sovereign settlement channels. It seems like a gentle attempt but actually harbors ambition for innovative transformation.
03
Who will claim the crown? The stablecoin market will decide.
Of course, regardless of how enthusiastic major companies at home and abroad are, the direction of the trillion-dollar stablecoin market ultimately determines its developmental ceiling. In fact, returning to the starting point of the stablecoin boom, policy and system are key. In other words, the 'institutional dividend' under the legality of stablecoins serves as a reference for institutional layouts, and if one wishes to observe its future development, the system is also an important factor.
When stablecoins are brought into the national arena, monetary competition is inevitably elevated to the level of national competition. Under the banner of 'Dollar First' that the U.S. currently upholds, the dominant position of the U.S. dollar stablecoin is hard to shake, and it is even likely to be further strengthened, while tokens pegged to the Hong Kong dollar, Chinese yuan, or others may face certain disadvantages in the market. This is because monetary internationalization reflects an objective choice of the situation, rather than an acquired advantage. The essence behind currency is the endorsement of national sovereignty. In this context, the development space for dollar stablecoins is clearly broader than that of other currencies. As more U.S. institutions enter the fray, competition will become more intense, with both retail and wholesale scenarios being key battlegrounds. In contrast, Hong Kong dollar stablecoins or future Chinese yuan stablecoins will likely prioritize breakthroughs from the B-end under the constraints of the mainland.
On the other hand, even though many countries and regions around the world admire stablecoins, fundamentally, while responding to new technologies and nurturing new sectors, the primary development strategy of major countries like the U.S. is to minimize the conflict of stablecoins with the traditional banking system. Therefore, the development of stablecoins is bound to be limited. In fact, the existing regulations also reflect this point; in mainstream regulatory directions, stablecoins must possess fixed prices, hard convertibility, and non-interest characteristics. The purpose of non-interest is to prevent potential financial disintermediation caused by stablecoins and to avoid excessive liquidity leading to run risks; fixed prices and hard convertibility imply both equivalent and excess reserves. The combination of these three factors strictly constrains stablecoin issuers, aiming to limit the ability to derive and create currency, making it inherently limited in scale and ultimately dependent on the current monetary system.
Of course, the necessary condition for the development of stablecoins is the growth of the digital asset market, which may also serve as another breakthrough path for stablecoins. However, under existing constraints, stablecoins cannot compete with national credit and find it even harder to develop independently away from the current macro context, thus only able to 'dance with shackles.'
However, even so, the trillion-dollar business scale, even if only a portion leaks out, is enough to attract global institutions. Whether driven by business needs or compelled to compete, major global companies sensing the benefits are voluntarily converging in this hunting ground. In the end, the outcome will still reflect the trade of resources, with institutions possessing rich political resources, strong effects from traditional capital circles, and collaborative integration advantages undoubtedly having more opportunities to stand out.