When a doll with sharp teeth sells for an astronomical price of 1.24 million yuan, when celebrities compete to promote it, and when young people are willing to trade their iPhones for hidden versions, Labubu under Pop Mart is stirring an unprecedented frenzy. The stock price has surged nearly tenfold in a year, reminiscent of the madness of the NFT market in 2021. When trendy toys evolve into a financial game rather than mere toys, how long can this seemingly prosperous bubble last?
From Dolls to Social Currency: The Secret to Labubu's Popularity
1. Subverting Traditional Rebel Aesthetics
Labubu, with its unique sharp teeth, heterochromatic eyes, and charming smile, breaks the traditional cute aesthetic framework. Psychological studies indicate that this sensory paradox formed by the 'ugly-cute' style coincides perfectly with Generation Z's collective emotions of 'anti-involution' and 'social anxiety.' Just like the 'truth of stinky tofu,' the more bizarre the image, the more it can serve as an identity label that showcases individuality, providing an outlet for emotional release for young people.
2. The Dual Drive of Blind Box Mechanism and Celebrity Effect
The randomness of blind boxes brings a gambling-like thrill; Labubu's hidden version has a low probability of 1/144, causing users' dopamine levels to soar during unboxing, with a repurchase rate as high as 45%. The influence of celebrities has further propelled Labubu to new heights; BLACKPINK member Lisa's phrase 'my baby' has led to a 7-fold premium in the Southeast Asian market; Rihanna showcased Labubu on her Hermès bag, instantly conferring 'luxury' status.
3. The Miracle of Global Social Spread
On TikTok, Labubu unboxing videos have surpassed 1 billion views, with bizarre exchanges happening globally: in Bangkok's night market, someone traded a hidden version for an LV bag, and similar transactions appeared at Harrods in London. Trendy toys have become a hard currency in young people's social lives, and this viral spread is akin to NFT players flaunting their monkey avatars.
Labubu and NFTs: Similar Bubble Trajectories
1. Similar Promotional Tactics
Both rely on celebrity endorsements; NFTs have Elon Musk promoting them, while Labubu has Lisa pushing sales; both create value through scarcity, with NFTs relying on blockchain technology to ensure uniqueness, while Labubu creates scarcity through limited editions and 'globally unique' mint green auctions; both excel at generating fear of missing out (FOMO), with Beeple's NFT fetching 450 million, and Labubu creating a 'value myth' with its 1.24 million price tag.
2. Value Traps in the Emotional Economy
NFTs and Labubu are fundamentally both symbol games where 'consensus outweighs value.' The case of NFT monkey avatars plummeting by 90% warns us that when social buzz fades, assets lacking practical value will face value collapse. While Labubu is a physical entity, the premium price has far exceeded its actual value, with price fluctuations of 68% comparable to Bitcoin, making the risks evident.
3. The Game of Musical Chairs Controlled by Capital
Scalpers exploit bots to monopolize purchasing channels, investors hoard like they do with Maotai, and brands deliberately control production capacity. In this game, consumers who genuinely buy out of love instead become the ones being harvested.
Lessons from the Past: Pop Mart's Previous Crises
Pop Mart's previous MOLLY collaboration with LV reached exorbitant prices, but the hype of new series often only lasts 6 to 12 months, with some styles' prices cut in half. The SKULLPANDA series saw resale prices drop by 40% within six months, highlighting the short lifecycle issue of trendy toy IPs. Labubu's 'limited editions' face the same risk; if the brand aims for mass replication for profit, consumer trust will collapse instantly, and the consequences may be more severe than in the NFT market.
Can Physical Attributes Save Labubu?
Although Labubu is a physical doll with touchable and modifiable attributes, its core premium is still built on 'social identity recognition.' Once scarcity disappears due to trends, the 'trendy toy middle class' may collectively sell off, similar to the collapse of the Tibetan mastiff market years ago. Currently, Pop Mart is attempting to elevate Labubu from a 'trendy toy' to a 'cultural symbol' by developing animations, collaborating with Coca-Cola, and planning theme parks to inject more cultural connotations. However, Labubu's current hype still mainly relies on aesthetic speculation, and it has a long way to go before becoming a cultural icon like Hello Kitty, which is built on content accumulation.
Labubu's madness reflects the dilemma of capital seeking refuge in a low-interest-rate environment. As speculative thinking dominates the trendy toy market and brands overly rely on scarcity marketing, this game of musical chairs will eventually come to an end. The only suspense lies in whether, after the bubble bursts, we are left with nothing but chaos, or whether it can give rise to a truly globally influential Chinese trendy toy IP. The answer may depend on whether Pop Mart can break free from the fleeting pleasures of short-term marketing and truly inject lasting cultural soul into Labubu.
