1. Key signals from the fundamentals
(1) The intertwining of escalating and easing geopolitical risks
The Iran conflict has three major focal events: Iran launching long-range missiles attacking Israel, Trump previously stating 'to go to war with Iran', and drone attacks causing casualties among Israeli personnel. Although the situation was tense at one point, Trump announced a two-week delay in the decision to strike, temporarily alleviating market concerns about the conflict spiraling out of control. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a major risk variable for the market.
(2) On-chain data releases a signal of low morale
Bitcoin's on-chain trading volume hits an 18-month low, with the hype surrounding Runes and Ordinals fading, leading the crypto market into a seasonally quiet trading period. The decline in capital activity combined with geopolitical risk aversion results in continued pressure on market liquidity.
2. In-depth analysis of technical aspects
(1) BTC: Directional choice at the end of triangular convergence
Daily level: Price is at the end of a 'symmetrical triangle' pattern, with $103 as the recent monthly low that has been tested multiple times without effectively breaking down, indicating that buying support is still present. However, under negative factors (geopolitical conflict + ETF approval delays), it is more inclined to form a descending wedge pattern. If $103 is lost, $95 (the previous rally point) will become a key defensive zone. Current trading volume continues to shrink, and market sentiment is heavily cautious.
4-hour level: Price is oscillating narrowly between $1035-$1055, with significant pressure at $1055-$1065 above and support at $1035-$1025 below that needs to be closely monitored.
Operating suggestion: A rebound to around $1055-$1065 can be a setup for short positions, targeting $1035-$1025; if it breaks below $103, further declines need to be cautious, and if it stabilizes at $95, attempts to buy the dip can be made.
(2) ETH: The tug-of-war between bulls and bears before the critical point
Daily level: Price is declining along the 7-day moving average, with the key support at the $2480 line (recent monthly low), structurally entering the end of a triangular convergence. Volume shows 'rising without volume, falling with volume'; bullish confidence is insufficient, and bears dominate the rhythm.
4-hour level: Fluctuating around the $2480-$2540 range approaching a critical point, with the lower blue trendline support about to be touched, increasing the risk of a breakdown.
Operating suggestion: If there is pressure at $2540-$2570 above, short positions can be taken, targeting $2480-$2450; if $2480 is lost, be cautious of accelerated declines, and after stabilization, light positions can be taken to bet on a rebound.
(3) Altcoins: Beware of rebound traps and focus on new narratives in RWA
After a general rise in altcoins yesterday, there was a pullback, with the previous rebound space basically given back, and blindly chasing highs can easily lead to being trapped. It is worth noting that the launch of CNH stablecoins will promote the RWA (Real Asset Tokenization) track, with coins like ONDO, MKR, and AAVE linked to US treasuries that can be closely tracked, focusing on capital inflow signals.
3. Risk Warning
Currently, the market is intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with geopolitical conflict and regulatory policies (such as US SEC ETF approvals) being the main variables. Position sizes need to be strictly controlled in operations to avoid chasing highs and cutting losses, with a focus on BTC at $103 and ETH at $2480 for key level gains or losses. The crypto market is highly volatile; the above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
