📌 Macro heavyweight surprise:
1️⃣ The Fed's hawkish stance returns, the dot plot reveals that there may only be one rate cut this year! Powell's press conference released signals of 'maintaining high interest rates for a longer time', cooling the crypto market, and capital wait-and-see sentiment is rapidly rising. (See attached chart interpretation for details)
2️⃣ The Middle East situation is heating up rapidly! The proxy conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated to a 'nuclear deterrence' state. Although a comprehensive regional war has not erupted, a 'high-pressure mixed war' pattern is taking shape. International oil prices and risk aversion sentiment will continue to ferment, potentially indirectly influencing global risk asset trends.
📉 BTC trend analysis:
Daily structure: Continuously probing the 103500 support area, although there have been multiple rebounds, the highs are gradually declining, and the downward trend remains unchanged. The 103000 line becomes the market sentiment dividing point; if it breaks below, the support will look towards 95000.
4-hour chart: Consolidating within 1055-1035, trading volume is extremely low, indicating increased market wait-and-see sentiment. We need to wait for a directional breakout. A significant breakdown or breakout will initiate a new trend.
🎯 Trading Suggestions：
Upper resistance level: 1055–1065
Lower support level: 1035–1025
Direction choice is imminent, waiting for an explosion!
📉 ETH strategy analysis:
The price is currently retreating to repair the 'technical gap' left by the sharp rise in May, currently holding above the critical support level of 2480. If it can break above 2650-2680 with increased volume, it is expected to enter a new wave of bullish momentum, challenging the high of 3050.
If it falls below 2480 with increased volume, it may trigger a deep adjustment, with support looking at2310-2280 range。
🎯 Trading focus:
Upper resistance: 2540–2570
Lower support: 2480–2450
Low-volume rebound has not changed the oscillating pattern, still need to be wary of false breakouts!
📊 Altcoins: Is the rebound a false signal? Let's break it down:
✅ Four major criteria to judge a true rebound:
Sector rotation is starting, leading coins are the first to break through key levels;
Increased volume and price rise together indicate true buying interest;
Stablecoin net buying continues to improve, on-chain data is warming up;
Macro cooperation, US Treasury yields are declining, and policies are not hitting the brakes.
❌ Current actual situation:
Most altcoins are rebounding with low volume, no obvious capital entry signals;
The Fed's attitude is hawkish, and the short-term rate cut window is still unclear;
The SEC has repeatedly postponed ETF approvals, and the benefits have not yet materialized;
Popular coins like ZRO, ZK are facing high unlocking risks!
📌 Conclusion: Currently leaning towards a 'rebound' rather than a 'reversal', spot trading should remain on the sidelines, waiting for a resonance signal of mainstream stabilization + macro cooperation to emerge, which will be the starting point for the next layout.
⚠️ Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market is volatile, and the above content is for reference only, not investment advice. Please manage risks when entering the market!#鲍威尔发言
