Running Low: Could Israel and Iran Soon Face a Missile Shortage?

Since last Friday, Israel and Iran have been locked in an intense and continuous exchange of aerial attacks, targeting major cities like Tehran and Tel Aviv. Iran has launched approximately 400 missiles towards Israel, but only about 20 managed to strike urban areas, with the rest intercepted by Israel’s air defense systems. Analysts estimate that Iran originally possessed between 2,000 and 3,000 missiles, meaning they may now have fewer than 500 left after the latest barrage. Additionally, Israeli intelligence reports suggest that around 33% to 40% of Iran’s missile launch platforms have been destroyed, many of which were compromised due to Mossad-led sabotage operations.

On the Israeli side, while their multi-layered defense system—comprising the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow interceptors—remains highly effective, concerns are growing over their interceptor stockpile. Reports from the Pentagon and defense experts warn that Israel may only have enough interceptors for about 12 more days if the current pace of attacks continues. To help prevent a crisis, the United States has already begun sending additional munitions and defense support, though logistics and production rates are becoming a challenge for both nations.

Looking ahead, three scenarios are emerging. First, a gradual decline in offensive strikes could happen simply due to ammunition shortages on both sides. Second, the conflict could escalate dramatically if external actors like the U.S. increase military support, potentially triggering a wider regional war—especially since Iran has warned that direct American involvement would mean “total war.” Lastly, there’s the possibility of growing diplomatic pressure forcing both countries towards a ceasefire, especially if their military capacity weakens further.

The financial and logistical costs of maintaining this level of combat are unsustainable. For Israel, operating its defense systems costs an estimated $285 million per night.