A politician's words can undo a decade of work for retail investors. The market does not believe in tears; it only recognizes bloody chips and cold logic.
Plain language interpretation:
Yesterday's market felt like a roller coaster, all turned upside down by a few news items! The core is just three things, let’s break them down:
Trump's 'verbal bluster' drives the market, Iran 'slaps back' and crashes it:
What happened? Trump suddenly hinted that 'Iran wants to negotiate,' and behold, Bitcoin (BTC) jumped up 3%. Just as someone chased in, the Iranian officials immediately came out to slap back: 'Pure nonsense!' Ethereum (ETH) led the way, and the price fell rapidly.
Dashing's bloody experience: Just for that brief moment, those who chased the rise suffered. Look at Binance's liquidation list, the top 10 positions are all retail investors, many of whom rushed in to go long ETH at the high point of $2,520, directly 'hoisting a flag' (getting liquidated) at the peak. I heard that a whale took advantage of this volatility and liquidated short positions worth $280 million! This is simply 'political manipulation' using the White House Twitter as a free tool to manipulate contracts and harvest retail investors.
Dashing's viewpoint: Chasing highs and selling lows based on news is a major taboo for retail investors, especially with such hard-to-distinguish political hints. The big sharks are just waiting for this kind of volatility to harvest.
Ultimate 'big killer' is in place: US military bunker buster ready!
Heavy bombshell: Fox News reported that the US military's GBU-57 massive bunker buster, capable of penetrating 60 meters of granite and designed to destroy underground nuclear facilities, has already been delivered to Qatar! Who is this aimed at? It's obvious.
How to view the logic of the crypto world? Some believe that when the bomb explodes, both gold and Bitcoin will fall? Wrong! Looking back at history, when the US military killed Iranian general Soleimani in 2019, Bitcoin surged against the trend by 19%! Why? Because in times of war and panic, funds will seek a 'safe haven' outside the traditional financial system, and Bitcoin sometimes plays this role. Will this happen again? This is the biggest suspense the market is currently focused on.
The Federal Reserve's 'dangerous tightrope':
Powell stands up to Trump: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated on the front page of the Wall Street Journal: The tariffs imposed by Trump will drive up inflation, so it is absolutely impossible to cut interest rates in June! This doused cold water on those expecting immediate monetary easing.
The devil's details hide opportunities: But if you look closely at the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, there is a key signal: 'Geopolitical conflicts may alter policy trajectory.' In plain language: If a war really breaks out in the Middle East, leading to a market crash, the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates in September to rescue the market! So, the market is currently betting: to strike or not to strike? When to strike? This determines when interest rate cut expectations will heat up.
Dashing's viewpoint: The situation in the Middle East is currently the biggest variable affecting the market (especially interest rate cut expectations). The more tense the situation, the stronger the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to 'rescue the market' with interest rate cuts, which may instead become a catalyst for potential future rises. The betting window for a September rate cut may just be the potential starting point for 'bottom fishing countdown.'
What are institutions doing? Sneaking in to 'steal the house'!
Exchanges are about to be emptied: Data shows that 124,000 Bitcoins have been withdrawn from exchanges this week! This is a six-month high. 'Withdrawing coins = war stockpiling,' this signal is very hardcore, indicating that large funds are moving their coins to safer wallets and do not plan to sell in the short term.
BlackRock is crazily buying up: The Bitcoin ETF under the world's largest asset manager, BlackRock, has been buying continuously for 7 days, averaging $300 million a day! This purchasing power is a clear sign of confidence.
Options market betting big: Someone is making large purchases of Bitcoin call options expiring at the end of June with a strike price of $70,000! This clearly indicates that Wall Street is betting: if the US military really takes action, Bitcoin will surge violently!
Dashing's viewpoint ('Rational version of the radical theory'):
Saying 'the $60,000 cake is measured by US military bombs' is a bit exaggerated, but the core logic is: large institutions are likely predicting that this geopolitical tension will cause market panic and retail selling (resulting in low-priced chips). They are crazily absorbing these 'nuclear-grade' cheap chips during the possible panic drop. Once the situation eases a bit, or if interest rate cut expectations rise due to the war, they will have enough ammo to push the market up and harvest globally.
Current operating strategy (rational version):
Spot players: If due to panic, Bitcoin suddenly drops below $59,000, don't hesitate, buy in batches with a sack! But remember, the situation in the Middle East is ever-changing, be sure to keep about 30% of your ammo to prevent a possible 'second bombing' (a further drop).
Contract players (high risk!): If the price can effectively break through $62,300, consider lightly chasing long positions; at the same time, to guard against sudden drops, you can place a defensive short position near $59,700 (stop-loss should be tight). Leverage should never exceed 20 times! High leverage in this market is equivalent to suicide.
Alternative option: If you want to bet on the 'Middle Eastern funds seeking refuge' logic, you can pay attention to BNB (Binance Coin). Data shows that Binance platform saw a net inflow of $830 million in 24 hours; if Middle Eastern funds really flood into the crypto world, as the largest exchange's platform coin, BNB may benefit.
'War and peace, on the K-line, are all trajectories of chip movement. Do you want to be a floating weed dragged by the news, or a hunter who understands logic and patiently ambushes? Follow Dashing, in the next issue we will dissect: the secret on-chain signals of institutions 'stealing the house' and how to capture their accumulation traces in advance!'