When this question is posed, the answer has already turned into a bloody alarm among the ruins of the contract market's countless corpses: The so-called good end is the most luxurious illusion in this hell, an unreachable shore for 99.9% of participants in their lifetime.
Chapter 1: The Cruel Definition of 'Good End': Escaping alive is already a blessing
To talk about 'good end' in the contract market is essentially the greatest mockery of human greed:
Bankruptcy by Secular Standards: The 'capital preservation exit' or 'stable profit' in traditional investments is completely ineffective here. The 'good end' of contracts is compressed to the extreme: to leave the gambling table alive and never look back is already a top achievement.
The poison of survivor bias: Behind all the circulated myths of getting rich, there are three cold facts hidden:
Short-term profit ≠ lifelong security (in 2022, over 100 times leverage short-seller 'winners' of LUNA's overnight zeroing, 97% later liquidated in subsequent trades);
Survival data must be divided by a time coefficient (tracking data from an exchange shows: 5% of accounts survive over 1 year, 0.3% over 3 years);
Exiting is the ultimate victory (a former contract competition champion in 2023 confessed: 'I earned 80 million, but three years later owed the exchange 2 million').
Conclusion: There are no good enders in the contract market, only temporarily unliquidated gamblers.
Chapter 2: The Bloody Path: The Three Corpse Ladders to 'Pseudo-Good End'
A few seemingly 'good end' cases are, in fact, a survivor's game on the edge of a knife:
1. The quantitative cage of mathematical geniuses
High-frequency arbitrage traders rely on millisecond-level system advantages (like the cable privileges at the Chicago Exchange), but a top quant fund's one-day liquidation of 500 million in February 2024 proves: Black swans will tear apart all models.
The brutal paradox: The more stable the profit, the more the leverage must increase, while the liquidation energy grows exponentially with leverage multiple (a 3% fluctuation can wipe out at 10 times leverage, while a 0.3% fluctuation means destruction at 100 times leverage).
2. Spiritual self-destruction of those lacking pain perception
Professional contract traders need anti-human traits:
Cold-blooded stop-loss (witnessing 98% of positions forcibly closed with no emotional fluctuations);
Mechanical execution (after 19 correct consecutive calls, still daring to go 100 times heavy on the 20th wrong judgment).
Physiological cost study: Long-term high stress leads to cortisol levels exceeding 300%, with a sudden death rate 47% higher than average (data from the 2023 Korean Traders Association).
3. Lifelong mark of the abyss reborn
Common traits among the few 'survivors':
Liquidations ≥ 3 times (a survey in an anonymous community found that 153 'washed hands' participants averaged 4.2 liquidations);
Permanent trauma stress (75% experience sleep panic disorders, 60% refuse to engage with financial markets);
Broken social relationships (hidden debts, family estrangement, and credit bankruptcy become standard).
Chapter 3: Structural Massacre: Why is the probability of a good end lower than winning the lottery?
The essence of the contract market is a meticulously designed wealth destruction machine:
1. The death sentence of mathematical rules
Liquidation probability = 1 - (1 -
Leverage multiple
Number of trades
Trading with 100 times leverage, liquidation probability > 63%;
After a thousand trades, the liquidation probability approaches 100%. 3. Addictive life sentence
Dopamine tyranny: The intensity of leverage profit stimulation is 3 times that of sex (Johns Hopkins neurology experiment);
Withdrawal reaction: Anxiety levels after stopping are equivalent to those of drug addicts (clinical data from Hong Kong Gambling Recovery Center).
Chapter 4: The Blood and Tears Apocalypse: The Only 'Good End' Path Away from Contracts
There are only two truly feasible survival rules:
1. Absolute exit: Never look back
The case of Zhang in Shenzhen:
In 2019, ETH contracts earned 17 million → purchased 4 core properties → closed accounts and cut off the internet;
In contrast, Li earned 20 million in 2021 → increased positions for 'wealth freedom sprint' → in 2022, LUNA liquidation left a debt of 8 million.
2. Asymmetric risk survival (limited to top talents)
Soros-style anti-fragility rule:
'Use 90% of principal to buy government bonds, play contracts with 10% → if it goes to zero, annualized loss ≤ 10%; if it doubles, immediately withdraw the principal.'
Reality is harsh: Among the 972 people who tested this strategy from 2018 to 2023, only 11 persisted for over 2 years (1.1%).
Ultimate truth: The good end lies outside of contracts
When Buffett said, 'Never use leverage,' he saved not just wealth, but the fate of countless families. The gravestone of the contract market is inscribed with an eternal truth:
'All shortcuts lead to the abyss, all get-rich-quick schemes are bait. The true good end starts from the moment you refuse to sit at the gambling table.'
