6.19 Bitcoin Strategy
Bitcoin has shown strong volatility recently!
There has been a one-sided drop📉, breaking through the support level of 104800, reaching a low of 103300.
Today's price has slightly rebounded but remains in a high-level range.
However, the number of daily transactions on the chain has dropped to the lowest since October 2023, showing a divergence between market activity and price trends.
Macroeconomic impact:
1. The US May CPI data was moderate (annual rate of 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%), providing support for risk assets.
2. The easing of US-China trade relations has boosted market optimism towards cryptocurrencies.
3. Progress in stablecoin legislation and institutional "hoarding" (such as BlackRock and listed companies) have further pushed up the price of Bitcoin.
Market Sentiment
The daily trend channel of Bitcoin has recently turned red, with EMA20 (20-day moving average) becoming a key dividing line. If the price falls below EMA20, it may indicate the end of the one-sided upward trend.
Technical Analysis
Support level: 103300 (yesterday's low), 88000-90000 is a stronger bottom support area, based on short-term holder MVRV data.
Resistance levels: 105400-112000 range, with 112000 being the recent high.
Trend Prediction:
The current market is in a consolidation phase, which may be accumulating strength for the next round of gains. A new high may be reached in mid-June, but the risk of a rapid drop📉 should also be noted.
