Core Interpretation of Powell's Speech in the Early Morning
1. Interest Rate Policy
Maintain 4.25%-4.5% unchanged (in line with expectations)
Future rate cut path: 2 times in 2025 → 25 basis points in 2026 → 25 basis points in 2027
Possibility of rate hike extremely low
2. Inflation Dynamics
May PCE forecast: Overall 2.3% / Core 2.6% (slightly above the 2% target)
Warning: Inflation may accelerate in the coming months
3. Economic Outlook
GDP growth rate 1.5%-2.0% (steady but below potential level)
Net export data significantly disrupted, but overall uncertainty has eased
4. Federal Reserve Reform
Policy framework review to be completed by late summer
Key optimizations: Policy communication strategy ➡️ Economic forecasting model ➡️ Internal personnel review
Market Impact
Short-term: Alleviation of rate hike concerns, pressure on risk assets eased
Medium to long-term: Rate cut pace may be slower than expected, focus on inflation data
Policy risk: If PCE continues to exceed expectations, do not rule out only one rate cut in 2025