On the macro news front, the situation in the Middle East has heated up again, while the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates in its latest decision. Notably, Fed Chairman Powell's speech did not trigger significant panic in the market, and the overall performance of the crypto market has remained relatively stable. Bitcoin continues to hold the critical support at $103,500 and is consolidating within a converging triangle structure.
Bitcoin (BTC): The consolidation has not broken down, with short-term attention on downside risks.
The current key short-term resistance level for Bitcoin is $105,500. If it breaks through the stronger resistance at $106,100, it will confirm a stage of strengthening in the market. Currently, a W-shaped double bottom structure is forming at the hourly level, with short-term support still around $103,500. If this position is lost, it is recommended to follow the trend and short.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin has risen for seven consecutive weeks, and this round of adjustment is weak in both time and amplitude, posing a risk of further downside. The operation leans towards caution, waiting for subsequent pullback confirmations. If a deeper adjustment occurs, it cannot be ruled out as a foundation for the year-end market.
Ethereum (ETH): Operate within the range of fluctuations, with a focus on low long strategies.
Ethereum's current trend is still at the lower edge of the fluctuation range, operating overall between $2480 and $2555, and has not effectively broken through the upper edge of the range for two days. In terms of strategy, it is still recommended to continue the low long approach; current holders of yesterday's long positions can continue to hold.
If the market rebounds to the 4-hour level 30 moving average resistance (around $2551) and the $2580 resistance zone, consider gradually laying out short positions; for long positions, it is recommended to set them at the $2465 and $2587 support levels to avoid recklessly chasing orders in the middle of the range.
Altcoins: Continuing a six-week pullback, may be approaching a short-term rebound window.
From the K-line of the total market value of altcoins, it has recorded six consecutive weeks of declines, and the overall market value is nearing the startup area at the end of last year. If this round does not break the previous low, it technically has the potential to form a 'rebound bottom.'
Observing the recent performance of certain cryptocurrencies also reveals clues—such as AAVE, MKR, BCH, and UNI, which have not significantly declined during market fluctuations and even show certain anti-dip characteristics; some cryptocurrencies are exhibiting counter-trend surges. This local activity may be a signal of the 'Small Altcoin Season' starting.
Although the market has not completely escaped the adjustment structure, if overall sentiment stabilizes, coupled with Bitcoin and Ethereum finding support, altcoins may be poised for a rebound similar to the end of last year.
UNI: On-chain capital is active, possibly brewing a structural surge.
Recently, UNI has seen an increase in on-chain large transactions and has maintained relative strength in a volatile market, showing signs of capital trying to 'make moves' in this wave of market. As one of the leading DeFi projects, UNI also has a compliant narrative basis. Once the sector rotation aligns, it has short-term explosive potential.
SUI: Has once again fallen into the accumulation range, laying out positions in batches according to rhythm.
SUI's recent trend has been affected by the earlier Cetus theft incident, forcing the planned rise to be halted. Currently, SUI has once again pulled back to the personal accumulation focus area. The last entry was at an average price of $2.3, dropping to a low of $1.7; this round has re-entered near $2.7, with the expected support area still around $2.3.
In terms of operations, continue to maintain a batch accumulation approach, avoiding bottom fishing, and focusing on grasping reasonable average prices and overall risk control.
Operation Summary · Market Strategy Reference:
The overall market is still in a period of fluctuation and adjustment, with Bitcoin controlling the market, Ethereum fluctuating, and altcoins retracing; this pattern will not be quickly broken in the short term. In terms of operations, it is necessary to control positions, avoid chasing highs and selling lows, and pay more attention to buying opportunities and signals of sector rotation. If the total market value of altcoins does not break a new low, some strong cryptocurrencies may lead the way in making up for gains; it is recommended to closely monitor capital flows and hot rotation rhythms and position in high-quality targets in advance.
