Despite recent market volatility, Bitcoin (BTC) prices have remained firmly above $100,000, with both technical indicators and macro data releasing positive signals. Multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin is currently in a long-term upward cycle and is still expected to set a new historical high.
Annual cycle model: 2025 is a key upward year.
According to CryptoQuant's annual percentage trend analysis, Bitcoin has shown a relatively stable 'three-year cycle' trend since 2011: the first year rises, the second year corrects, and the third year sees another strong surge. This pattern is highly correlated with Bitcoin's halving cycle.
The year 2025 coincides with the 'third year' of the current cycle, and models predict that Bitcoin will rise by about 120%, potentially reaching $205,097 by the end of the year. This also means that there is still significant room for Bitcoin to rise from the current price level.
The halving model and RSI indicate that the upward potential has not yet been fully released.
Historical data also indicates that after the last halving in May 2020, Bitcoin accumulated a rise of 750% over four years, surging from around $8,000 to $69,000.
If this increase is repeated in the current cycle, the BTC price is theoretically expected to soar to $466,257.
Currently, Bitcoin's RSI (Relative Strength Index) has not yet entered the 'overbought zone' (RSI > 70). Looking at the trend from 2020, it was only after the RSI effectively broke through this range that a real acceleration in price began. The current RSI is at a critical point; if it effectively breaks through, it is expected to trigger the next strong rebound.
ETF inflows continue to support prices.
Another key variable supporting the long-term bull market is the continuous capital inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs. As of now, the total assets under management of these ETFs have reached $131.16 billion, reflecting that traditional capital markets are gradually increasing their allocation to Bitcoin.
As long as liquidity continues to flow in, Bitcoin's market positioning as 'digital gold' will become more stable, providing a foundational support for greater price increases in the future.
Summary:
With the resonance of the halving cycle, macro data, and ETF capital inflows, Bitcoin remains within a medium to long-term bullish structure during the current correction phase.
Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but based on historical trends, Bitcoin's upward potential is far from over. In the coming months, if market sentiment and technical indicators resonate and confirm a rebound, new highs are not a dream but merely a matter of time.