ETH Today's Market: Consolidation or the eve of a reversal? The Great Sage will help you analyze the long and short battles.
"There is no easy profit in the crypto world, only rhythms to understand—ETH's current situation of 'boiling frogs in warm water' will either yield big profits or burn off some skin."

1. Technical Analysis: Bollinger Bands tightening + MACD convergence, what is the market waiting for?

From the 1-hour chart, the ETH/USDT price is being firmly pressed by the Bollinger middle band (2638), with the upper band at 2757 acting like a ceiling and the lower band at 2518 acting like a floor, resembling a 'sandwich'. The MACD's DIF and DEA lines are almost stuck together, with the bars shrinking into a thin thread—typical 'no one is playing' consolidation market.


Yesterday, the price surged to 2718 and was quickly slammed down to 2620, indicating that the main force is playing 'false breakout, real harvest'. The last three touches of the 2750 resistance have all produced long upper shadows (see the chart), as if someone is shouting: "Fellow townsman, don’t run, get off at the next stop!"

2. News: ETF fund outflow + Layer 2 battlefield heating up.

  1. Grayscale ETHE has seen a net outflow of 120 million USD in a single day; large funds are retreating, but BlackRock's IBIT is still holding on, with long and short institutions exchanging barbs.

  2. Layer 2 sector suddenly has good news: Coinbase announces that Base chain's daily active users have surpassed 2 million, with competitors like OP and ARB skyrocketing, intensifying the competition within the ETH ecosystem. But be careful! These altcoins are sucking the funds from ETH, like 'the younger brother eats meat, while the elder brother drinks soup.'

The Great Sage's View:
In the short term, ETH is being treated as a 'cash machine', with funds rotating into altcoins; but in the long term, the final approval of the ETF in September is the bombshell variable. At this position, the whale is likely 'suppressing the market to accumulate', waiting for retail investors to cut losses before rallying.

3. Trading Strategy: Keep a close eye on these two signals.

  1. Breakout Scenario: If it stabilizes above 2757 (Bollinger upper band) on higher volume, you can lightly chase long positions, targeting 2850-2900. But remember, 'the first break must be false'; wait for a pullback confirmation before adding to your position.

  2. Crash Scenario: If the support at 2518 breaks, don’t rush to catch the falling knife! The level of 2450 is where institutions could get liquidated, and there’s a high probability of a spike rebound; place orders at 2450-2480 to catch the knife.

Retail Trap Warning:
Current trading volume has shrunk to the level of 'ants fighting'; beware of sudden spikes or rallies. Especially at 4 PM Beijing time (Europe comes online) and 8 PM (U.S. stock market opens), unexpected events are likely to occur.

"In this market, watching is more exhausting than performing—are you waiting to 'pick up the corpses' after ETH changes direction, or are you positioning yourself in advance to catch the fish heads? Share your positions in the comments; the brother with the most likes will receive a copy of (Top 10 Catalysts for ETH in the Second Half of the Year) internal materials!"$ETH #鲍威尔发言

Opportunities to make money are always there; it depends on whether you can seize this windfall. However, the prerequisite is to learn to distinguish the principles of technical and news analysis as the basis for building positions. If you don't know how to distinguish, you can follow the Great Sage's homepage, where I will teach you step by step!