XRP in the eye of the storm:

SEC delays ETF combined with Ripple's large transfers.

$2.10 becomes the lifeline for bulls and bears.

Negative news weighs heavily, oversold technicals hide a rebound opportunity.

News: Two major events intensify market anxiety.

SEC delays XRP ETF approval: Franklin Templeton's spot XRP ETF decision postponed by the SEC to the end of July 2025, causing XRP to drop to $2.13, as market expectations for short-term regulatory breakthroughs fall through.

Ripple transfers $438 million XRP: A massive transfer on June 18 triggered panic selling, but on-chain data shows exchange reserves actually decreased by 3.31%, possibly for internal allocation rather than dumping. Combined with escalating conflicts in the Middle East, options trading volume surged by 75.66%, with investors betting on a 5% price drop.

Technical aspect: Key support area sees heated contention.

Shorts dominate structure: 4-hour EMA in a bearish arrangement, parabolic SAR above the price, Bollinger Bands opening downwards, confirming a short-term downward trend.

Critical point: $2.10-$2.105 becomes the last line of defense; if lost, it will open up the space to $2.037 or even $2.00; to reverse the downturn, it must break through $2.19 and $2.25.

Initial rebound signal: MFI drops to 16.8 in the deep oversold area, a compression wedge forms on the 30-minute chart, if support holds, it may trigger a short squeeze rebound.

Precise strategy: A lurking plan before the storm.

Hold $2.10 for a light long position, stop loss below $2.05; add positions at $2.19, target $2.35-$2.42!

Buy signal: If support at $2.10 stabilizes with volume, enter long positions with a stop loss at $2.05.

Timing for accumulation: Add positions after breaking $2.19 with volume, target $2.35.

Short response: If the closing price falls below $2.05, short with a target of $1.90.

Negative news has been partially digested, oversold technicals are brewing a counterattack. Remember: opportunities lie in panic, set stop losses wisely, and wait for the main force's directional choice!

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